"There is no such thing, strictly speaking, as social science; there is only economic science, which studies the natural organism of society and shows how this organism functions."
- Gustave de Molinari, Belgian political economist
"That is all what I can summarise for my time spent in Anatolia for now." Said Abdullah as he frowns walking down the path of the busy harbour back in to the city of Thessaloniki through the Gate of Julian, renamed to supposedly commemorate the captain Julian who charged head in through this gate capturing the city liberating this city from Ottoman rule.
"I shall compile all of these in to a report for later studies, but for now I have handed over my duties to Master Fahim in the hope that he is able to stabilise the situation over there temporarily. But we must secure the prosperous coast of Anatolia fast, before Zaganos manages to solidify his control on the territory making it his core lands, it would be too late by then."
"I see." Antonius nodded. "So, you are suggesting that we ought to adopt the proposal to launch an Eastern expedition then?"
"No, admiral." However out of Antonius' surprised Abdullah denied this proposal without even hesitating. "The reason why I am here today is because I need to convince you that this plan is utterly impractical without considering the current demographics, political situation and military power comparison between us and the Ottomans under Zaganos."
Just as Antonius is about to ask the question more specifically, Yuri suddenly approached from their back whispering before Antonius' ears. "There are some one following us, admiral."
Antonius' eye brows jumped as he controlled his urge to take a peek at the back at the crowd. He too whispered to Abdullah holding his hands. "It is not safe over here, let us get back to the government building first."
Abdullah nodded picking up his speed knowing that even before the official war has started, the war of intel and infiltration initiates first.
The two men got back in to the operation planning room and it is there that Abdullah acknowledged Antonius that why it would be a bad idea to launch an Eastern campaign in the current time.
Zaganos Pasha is not an enemy to be reckoned with that easily. He is known to have led the Ottoman army in to several successive major battles defeating enemies that are considered even superior to the current thirty thousand force that Antonius have, such as the coalition force of the crusaders and the combined force of Sultan Orhan. According to previous scouting and reports it says that Zaganos now holds at least forty thousand strong army, with another four thousand as garrisons and if needed, he should be able to mobilise another forty thousand men across his country, while there is also a possibility that his vassals and the Ottoman court in Rumelia might send him reinforcements in the case of an attack.
Cross the Aegean in to the mountainous lands of Anatolia would also means that the Romans are going to abandon both their geographical advantage and as well as their advantage on the seas. Every one knows that the fleet of Antonius is almost certainly invincible in this region, and going on to the land would means that they are going to give that advantage away forcing their inferior troops to fight a direct land battle against Zaganos when he has the superiority in geographical intelligence and combat capabilities.
The other two main factors to be considered having a cross ocean campaign in Anatolia is whether the current logistics system is able to cope with the upcoming pressure they are going to face, and also whether Antonius' army is capable of gaining the support of the vast local population changing their images from being 'invaders' in to 'liberators'. He shall need every bit of support from all means possible if he is going to win this war with Zaganos.
It only took a brief well for Antonius to have a brain storm thinking about it and shook his head. "There are already so much problem governing the Peninsula of Erdek, which means there are going to be a hell lot of problems if we are going to advance deeper in to Anatolia coming in to contact with the local population… We might, no, we definitely shall be seen and treated like a bunch of foreign invaders. I certainly do not want my men to be caught in a state of guerrilla warfare by the locals and start questioning on their purpose of fighting in a distant land…"
"…As for logistics…" Antonius turned his sight looking at Alexios. "How much resources do you think you need supporting an operation of thirty five thousand men abroad in to Anatolia?"
Alexios gave Abdullah a grateful look, and then took out a pre prepared stack of paper with a bitterness look on his face. "My honourable admiral, I have to tell you the truth. If we chooses the Eastern campaign supporting a force of thirty five thousand plus combatants, we would need to mobilise at least a total of sixty thousand civilians, near a thousand wagons and three hundred ships sailing in the Aegean every single day to make sure that the front line troops have enough ammunition and food. And by this I am not considering those additional factors like wear and tear of gears and weapons, traffic incidents that blocks off the entire road, ships loaded with valuable wares crashing on to boulders causing a ship wreck, or even if they arrived in Anatolia, they will face assaults by Ottoman horse men archers and local guerrilla attacks, thus I can be sure that the actual amount of resources needed is much bigger than this."
Hearing such a colossal number of resources needed every one in the room including Antonius started getting a chilling shiver down their spine. The admiral forced a smile on his face jeering on himself. "Well… I too must be honest with myself; I do not think that I am that charismatic to attract the people of Anatolia making them jump to my side from Zaganos. And considering that we had spent a great amount of time and effort gaining the support of the current population we have now making them stand on our side, I do think that all of these time and efforts spent would be wasted if we are to launch such a campaign, we might just end up being like our old rival Candarli Halil."
Antonius looked at Julian with both his hands supporting his chin. "Julian thank you, but I do not think that the plan towards the East is practical… I know that if this plan succeeded no one will be able to match us taking over at least half of Anatolia. There is a good and suitable time for this plan, just that it is not now…"
Julian hastily bowed and apologised. "Aye, admiral, I shall be more careful in making plans in the future."
Antonius stood up and gave the young man a pat. "Alright, Julian, please go back to your camp and ready the infantries. I want to make sure that my troops shall march off with out any burdens being left behind in their heart and minds; If they want to go home to visit their relatives, let them do. If they are the single child of their family, make sure that they are not placed in to combat positions unless it is the last resort; And also start constructing all those siege engines, we might have a need of them in a few months' time… Remember Julian, I have a high expectation on you."
Julian bowed down again and left the room with the other commanders of the army leaving only Antonius and Abdullah inside the operation planning room. Immediately after Julian left he pulled Fisnik to one side of the corridor with his hands folded in front of his chest hissing out trying to keep his voice low. "Remember, man, this is the very last time that I am helping you in such stuff. Look, because of you I almost got reprimanded by the admiral today!"
"Chill, chill buddy." Fisnik had to keep on comforting Julian trying to control his dismay. "Look, I admit that I have not gone through much thinking when I told you my plan, but do forgive me this time alright? I shall think of a better one next time."
Hearing this Julian rolled his eyes and sneered. "There will not be a next time, captain Fisnik, now go and ready your own five hundred archers, get them ready for war, understand? Oh and that estate you have given me, I no longer need it, I find my army tent in the camp comfortable enough for a soldier like me to sleep in, please, take it back."
After saying these Julian walked away with out heading back, leaving the slightly agitated and nervous Fisnik over there shouting his name. "Hey! Julian! Hey! We can still talk! Hey!"