Chapter 541

After chatting with the leaders, he avoided everyone's eyes when saying goodbye, quietly left a note in the palm of master Deng's hand, left and returned to the hotel, and then went directly to the century horizon Investment Hong Kong headquarters in Swire square.

"Boss, you're here at last." Just out of the elevator, Bill Weibei and Li Shanquan were waiting with several management. When they saw Li Feng coming out, Bill smiled.

"Haha... Bill, I'll be here with you in the next few days." Li Feng said with a smile.

"Boss, you don't know that since the beginning of the year, Thailand's financial and foreign exchange market has been surging, but it's very lively. Before I obeyed your order and mobilized all the funds, many people have opinions." Bill smiled back.

"Come on, let's go to the office and say." Li Feng could only reply faintly.

The party returned to Li Shanquan's general manager's office, that is, Li Shanquan's office.

As soon as they got to the office to sit down, bill and Li Shanquan couldn't wait to report to Li Feng, and both showed excitement in their tone.

……

"Boss, since the beginning of 1997, house prices in Bangkok's business district have begun to fall, down 22%. The set (Thai Stock Exchange) index of the Thai stock market also fell from more than 1400 points at the end of January 1996 to more than 520 points in June 1997, a decrease of more than 60%.

As a direct consequence of the bubble burst in the real estate market and stock market, the bad assets of commercial banks have increased substantially. In June 1996, the non-performing loans of Thai commercial banks exceeded THB 1 trillion, and the non-performing loan rate reached 35.8%. In the stock market and real estate market, the sharp decline in asset prices has also hit financial securities companies.

On the one hand, their own securities depreciate; On the other hand, their non-performing loans in the real estate market and personal securities investment have increased significantly.

Because Thailand implements a "pegged floating" exchange rate system, it is still pegged to the US dollar. When the US dollar entered the appreciation channel, the Thai government realized that the continued pegging of the Thai baht to the US dollar would undoubtedly kill the "export-oriented" Thai economy.

However, the Thai government has been unable to make up its mind to adjust the exchange rate system for fear that abandoning the pegging system will lead to the devaluation of the Thai baht, increase the domestic debt burden, cause enterprise bankruptcy, worker unemployment and increase the non-performing loan rate of financial institutions.

They hope to maintain the pegged exchange rate for another period of time, first solve domestic economic problems, and then adjust the exchange rate system. However, international speculators did not give the Thai government enough time.

Unfortunately, the Thai government miscalculated the form. Since the beginning of 1997, international speculative capital has launched continuous attacks on the Thai baht. The Thai government has taken a series of measures to try to resolve the approaching crisis.

……

In February, the Central Bank of Thailand implemented a large-scale intervention in Singapore's foreign exchange market in order to lower the exchange rate of the Thai baht. As a result, this operation caused a strong market rebound. The exchange rate of the Thai baht depreciated rapidly by 5%. The attack of international currency speculators on the Thai baht changed from covert to open.

In March, international investors borrowed up to US $15 billion of forward Thai baht contracts from the Bank of Thailand and sold the Thai baht on a large scale in the spot exchange market, which increased the depreciation pressure of the Thai baht unprecedentedly. The Central Bank of Thailand intervened with us $2 billion in foreign exchange reserves to calm the storm.

In May, international speculators quietly established spot and forward foreign exchange trading positions through foreign banks operating offshore business, and then borrowed Thai baht from local banks in Thailand.

In the form of selling a large number of Thai baht in the spot and forward markets, they suddenly made trouble and sold short of Thai baht, resulting in a sharp decline in the spot exchange rate of Thai baht, breaking through the floating range stipulated by the Central Bank of Thailand for many times, causing market panic.

Commercial banks and enterprises have sold off the Thai baht and snapped up the US dollar. The Thai baht once depreciated to 27:1 against the US dollar.

In the face of the impact, the Central Bank of Thailand once again used US $5 billion in foreign exchange reserves to intervene, raised the offshore lending rate to 1000%, and prohibited domestic financial institutions from lending Thai baht.

Not long ago, in late June, the extremely fragile Thai foreign exchange market fluctuated violently again. The exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar plunged to 28:1. Now it seems that the Thai government is almost over. " Bill wilbey spoke positively with excitement.

……

"Yes, judging from Thailand's previous foreign exchange reserves of US $33 billion, according to calculation, it is basically consumed at this time. As long as the foreign exchange reserves are consumed, perhaps the Thai government may find another way.

In our opinion, there are several aspects. One is to sell domestic enterprise assets and raise funds. The other is to ask the international community for help, such as the world bank.

Unfortunately, the nature of the world bank is controlled by the United States, and most of the capital attacking Thailand's foreign exchange market comes from Wall Street. Another example is to seek state assistance, such as China and Japan, but state assistance cannot be unlimited. Therefore, these are a drop in the bucket or drinking poison to quench thirst.

The last point is to adjust today's foreign exchange policy. Now international hot money is attacking the Thai baht. As a result, it is tantamount to giving up resistance. At that time, the depreciation of the Thai baht will be further or even completely like waste paper.

According to the current form and my staff's estimation, the Thai government should not be able to support it immediately, and domestic assets have begun to be slowly infiltrated and controlled by European and American capital. If they can get the support of the international community, adjusting the exchange rate system is their only feasible way.

The devaluation of the Thai baht is our opportunity. Bill and I agree that when adjusting the exchange rate, it is also the last straw, but it is not clear when the adjustment strategy will be announced. " Li Shanquan also said.

"Although we gathered the funds according to your instructions and built the warehouse on the 2nd day, boss, I don't know how you know that they will adjust on this day?" Bill Weibei finally asked Li Feng at this time.

Obviously, before Li Feng asked them to concentrate their funds and prepare to bet on the 2nd, they were still confused.

……

"I'm bringing you good news now. I talked to several leaders of the Chinese government this morning. I heard from the government on the 1st that the Prime Minister of Thailand has called him several times and hoped that the government can support and assist them, but there is no news yet.

Moreover, according to him, the Prime Minister of Thailand told him that the government had basically made a decision. If there was no other support, it would announce the abandonment of the exchange rate system tomorrow. In addition to the fact that the country was really unable to withstand it, there was also the intention that everyone would die if one family died.

Haven't Hong Kong just returned to China? The financial crisis in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other places will certainly affect Hong Kong. The Chinese pay most attention to face. Naturally, the government doesn't want such a situation. According to the idea of the Thai government, it is possible to pull the Chinese into the water. " Li Feng said that the so-called announcement that Thailand would give up the exchange rate on the 2nd was a message from the Chinese government, which was fooled for the time being.

"What is this, threatening the Chinese government? It's really stupid." Li Shanquan interrupted.

"It's really stupid. The economic volume of the Chinese government is comparable to that of Thailand. Maybe he has drowned and others are still strong." Bill wilbey agreed.

"Anyway, we should make good preparations for tomorrow. Tomorrow may become the last straw to crush the economy of Southeast Asia. What is the final result? Maybe the financial crisis is really coming." Li Feng said with a smile.

"Since you have brought such good news, boss, we can't give up. Don't worry. All the preparations have been made. All our funds have been prepared before. In addition to our own $3 billion, a $5 billion fund has also been prepared." Bill replied with a smile.

……

"That's good. Next, I'll be busy with you. Later, I'll finally visit an elder and go first." Once again, he communicated with his two generals. Finally, Li Feng said with a smile.

"OK, that's it." Bill and Li Shanquan both smiled.