Chapter 718

"What do you think? Fang Zhe is the only true prophet in the audience (domestic Internet industry). No doubt, all werewolves (Internet enterprises) can't escape Fang Zhe's investigation!"

The most praised answer is the short sentence that was put on top by countless werewolf killing lovers.

"Fang Shoufu's words have been very straightforward. After years of development, any industry will tend to be saturated or fall into a bottleneck. The difference is that small industries may be saturated in a few years, and large industries will not be saturated in more than ten years and decades.

This saturation is not a complete lack of growth, but may also be an extremely slow or declining growth.

At this time, the resources and market in the industry can not meet the growth and even survival of several large companies at the same time, and the competition in the industry will intensify and fall into the inner volume. The final outcome is basically that the weak companies go bankrupt, go bankrupt or be merged, leaving only one or two companies to survive.

For the Internet industry, it can basically make a company or an industry fully mature in about 10 years.

Therefore, around 2008, the domestic Internet industry has actually fallen into a preliminary internal volume. Looking back on history, we can find that the three bat Internet giants, which had developed for about 89 years, were all involved in each other's fields because of their lack of growth momentum in their own fields.

Fortunately, the emergence of the mobile Internet at that time gave everyone a new market and track. The three companies were busy exploring the transformation to the mobile Internet and reduced their competition.

However, up to now, the mobile Internet has also developed in China for six or seven years, and it has reached the second half. In the next few years, the mainstream tracks and companies in the industry will basically develop and mature, go public one after another, the competition and internal volume in the whole industry will also intensify, and major companies will frequently explore new tracks and fields, or intervene in each other's core business fields.

In addition, fierce competition and market expansion means such as money burning subsidies will accelerate the maturity and involution of the industry. Therefore, we can see the fast and fast security mentioned by Fang Shoufu (money burning accelerates the maturity of the industry), 58 same city and ganji.com (both have developed for about 10 years, and the industry is full), Ctrip and qunar, eLong (Ctrip and elong have been established for 15 years, and qunar has also been established for about 10 years) , meituan and public comment (founded for more than 10 years) are basically similar, leading to the widespread occurrence of enterprise merger or merger.

According to this theory, in fact, we can also learn from Fang's richest man to make predictions, such as the hottest bicycle sharing industry at present.

Originally, the industry could not be fully mature for about 10 years, and the operation mode and business model were carefully figured out in this long time. But now, because the air outlet is too hot, all kinds of capital enter one after another, and there has been a trend of "encouraging".

Therefore, I predict that within about five years, there will be a large number of bankruptcies and closures in this industry, and even the second and third ranked companies will be taken over by Huizhong bat, even meituan and kuaan travel. Maybe because they grow too fast and do not understand the reasons for the business model and operation model, the top players in this industry will also fall into the situation of losing money and making money Difficulties, if there is no big enterprise to take the offer, we can only struggle hard! "

The netizen who ranked second in praise also learned the theory of Fang's richest man after an analysis, and made his own prediction about sharing bicycles, one of the hottest entrepreneurial outlets at present.

There are so many people who like it. Obviously, many netizens agree with him. Of course, there are many refuting voices under his comments.

"The manager is so sour. Mr. Zhu of Jinsha River has demonstrated the business model of sharing bicycles for a long time. Do you think those capitals are fools with so many venture capital and capital pursuit? Moreover, there are rumors in the market that even the win-win capital under Fang's richest man, which you boast, has backdoor invested in the leading ofo and the second ranked moBay in this field with a fund called Dongfang Shenghong!"

"Agree upstairs, ofo loyal users said that sharing bicycles is really super convenient after coming out. Now I have a monthly card and ride to and from work every day."

"Convenience is convenience. It's just that there are more and more bad cars. It's still very hard to find a good car. Moreover, I read the online news. Many people lock ofo or leave it lying around. It's very fucked. I feel that the discount rate of ofo bicycles is very high."

"Zhongying capital investment ofo does not conflict with the prediction of the layer owner. The layer owner also said that the outcome of the bike sharing giant is likely to be selling to big manufacturers or struggling. To put it bluntly, the domestic Internet industry is the giant's back garden. If all growing Internet enterprises are not strong enough, they basically have to be cut by giants like Huizhong.

Because the industry in which the giants are located has also been internalized, in order to maintain growth with their volume, many enterprises like ofo need to contribute as leeks. "

In addition to the above two serious answers, there are a lot of praise for all kinds of funny or serious answers.

"Never mind what I think, I just want to say, brother, you have the guts to list all the titles of Fang Zhe. The founder of Zhongying capital, the founder of Alipay, the deputy to the National People's Congress (Anhe province), the 50 most influential business leaders in China ranked first, and Forbes ranked first in China's charity list in 2014

I just want to say, you can't even list 200. How can you tell the question? "

"It's too harsh for the subject upstairs. I think the most important title of Fang zhe oba is my husband!" "agree!" "sisters support you!" "top your sister."

"There are more and more talents in our university of safety and technology. It is the so-called" literature to Yanda, research to Huaqing, politics to the National People's Congress. We only want to start a business and make money. Come to our university of safety and technology! "

"According to the prediction order, it will happen next. Ctrip and qunar have to tell stories, and meituan and public comments have to tell stories."

The question of the younger student of Anyang University of technology has been hanging on the Zhihu hot list for two or three days. In these two or three days, countless netizens have launched various discussions around this question and Fang Zhe's prediction. On the contrary, this question and the hot issue of Ctrip's merger and acquisition of elong have attracted little attention.

Fang zhe doesn't pay much attention to these disturbances on the Internet, and he doesn't have the mind and energy to pay attention. Fang Zhe's mind is now focused on one thing, that is, Indian leader mordi will come to Huizhong for a visit tomorrow!

This morning, modi's special plane has arrived in Chang'an, a famous historical city in Central China. This is modi's first visit to China since he became the leader of India. After three years, Fang zhe will meet with modi again.