Chapter 1932

Warner Bros. has never worried about the heat of the discussion on "Star Trek". Even if it is promoted for half a year, even if it is in a hurry, relying on the strong appeal of CASS lineup, these are not problems.

Sure enough, after the movie premiere, from the media to the audience, from traditional newspapers and magazines to new social networks, "Star Trek" began to brush the screen, and the discussion heat soared to the sky. Although it can't be compared with the foreshadowing of "Captain America 2" which has been brewing for more than 18 months, it still has a firm foothold in the summer archives.

Now let's look at the conversion rate between the heat of discussion and the box office data. In terms of the market appeal of lenley and Nolan, the final total box office figure is worth looking forward to.

However, as I mentioned before, due to the feedback from the internal audition and the decision to temporarily raise the file, Warner Bros. and industry insiders are relatively conservative in their estimation of the premiere box office. Referring to the box office curve of "Inception", Star Trek should also rely more on the continuous long-term box office rather than the outbreak of the premiere weekend.

Warner Brothers' caution can be seen from the number of public theatres.

"Godzilla" has 3952 public theaters.

"Star crossing" has 3592 theaters.

The number of screening theaters of the two works is totally different by 360, and the number of venues of "Star Trek" is even less than that of "LEGO movie" and "300 warrior" released earlier this year. Among Warner Brothers' annual cinema works in 2014, "Star Trek" can only rank eighth in the public screening scale, which is basically the same as the comedy "Tammy".

Undoubtedly, the arrangement of the number of public cinemas has distinctive characteristics: there are more than 4000 animated films with happy families; About 3800 popcorn movies in summer are the general standard; The magnitude of horror films is less than 3000, and it is common to see less than 2000.

Now, there are only 3592 star treks, less than 100 more than Tammy. This is also one of the important reasons why the major news media generally suspect that this work may become an abandoned son after the film is definitely promoted. Even if it is not an abandoned son, it also shows that Warner Brothers lacks the confidence.

Horizontal comparison shows that this was the case with "tomorrow's edge" two years ago, with about 3500 screening venues; As a reference, there are 3792 venues in inception.

It can be seen that the number of venues for the above three works is lower than the average level of summer commercial works. From the data level alone, there is only a difference of 200 and 300. The possible difference lies in some small towns in the central region, which has little impact on the box office - but who knows? Who can be 100% sure?

The only thing that can be explained is that Warner Bros. is still slightly conservative in its market forecast for sci-fi films. Even after "tomorrow's edge" and "Inception" have made outstanding achievements, the publicity department's forecast for the box office data of "Star Trek" is still slightly conservative. This mentality is also reflected in the official box office forecast of Warner Bros.

65 million dollars!

It's not US $100 million, it's not US $80 million, it's only US $65 million. This ultra-low figure also makes all netizens and viewers break their glasses.

But in fact, the industry believes that this is a very appropriate number.

Although "tomorrow's edge" once made a box office miracle of 138 million in the same period two years ago, it was born as the 22nd film in the history of film with a box office of more than 100 million; But don't forget inception.

In those years, Nolan assembled actors like Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Ellen Peggy, Marion godia and so on to form a star Cass comparable to the "Avengers alliance" to produce this work. Under the cover of 74 points of comprehensive media review, everyone thought that this film had all the elements to detonate the market, It can be said that it has attracted a lot of attention.

In the end, the opening box office of Inception was 62 million.

Of course, "Inception" still has a strong reputation in North America, sweeping the box office data of 290 million US dollars, and the performance of overseas markets is even more proud; But the objective fact is that this kind of brain burning sci-fi film lacks explosive power at the weekend of its premiere. It still needs to make use of the aftereffect of word-of-mouth communication to make a breakthrough at the box office.

"Star Trek" can be compared with "Inception" in all aspects, so Warner Bros. gave a 65 million box office forecast for the premiere, which is slightly conservative but also ineffective.

The box office forecast figures of relevant professional media also supported Warner Bros.

The Chicago Sun's box office forecast is the highest in the first round: 80 million dollars.

"Nolan now is not Nolan in 2010, nor is hall in 2012. These two top filmmakers in Hollywood pyramid have proved themselves through one work after another. When Nolan and hall partnered in 2014, the sparks between them are undoubtedly explosive."

They mentioned a very important thing: when "tomorrow's edge" was released, although "crazy love" and "speed and passion 5" and other works had already made a good box office, lanli was a "summer novice" who did not take the lead alone, changing from art film to commercial film, No one can be sure whether the audience will enter the cinema for the name of "Langley hall"; But now the situation has changed a lot. The excellent box office performance of "gravity" and "drunken folk songs" is the best proof.

So there's no reason for interstellar crossing to be an exception.

Rolling stone's box office forecast was the lowest in the first round: 25 million dollars.

The printing didn't go wrong, and the magazine's prediction didn't go wrong. That's the right number. Obviously, they didn't miss a zero.

"Everyone ignores the fact that when '2001 Space Odyssey' and 'wing killer' premiered, they didn't get the treatment they deserved. In that year, 'wing killer' was even denounced as a super bad film, and the box office performance of both films was very poor. This also proves that the classic sci-fi films beyond the times often can not adapt to the contemporary aesthetic needs.

’The success of inception comes from the fantasy construction based on the real life of human beings. Can Nolan's brain burning plot be accepted by the audience when he leaves the earth and goes into space? It's even more difficult for this work to make its way in the summer season when gravity has just contributed the best space drama in film history. "

From the vague feedback from the internal audition, to the half year temporary promotion, and then to the absence of Lan Li in the publicity stage, "rolling stone" thinks that there is a sense of uneasiness in all aspects - maybe "Star Trek" can still turn around with the help of word-of-mouth, but it is difficult to break the shackles of the whole era at the weekend of the premiere: This is an era of wine and fear of deep alleys, Even Marvel movies can't guarantee the box office success of every work. So why can Nolan and Langley's signboards be "decisive"?

The views of the Chicago Sun and rolling stone are reasonable, and the forecast data of other media can also be referred to

New York Times, 55 million.

Los Angeles Times, 40 million.

Hollywood Reporter, 60 million.

"Variety show", 60 million.

Empire, 50 million.

The forecast data of mainstream authoritative media are all concentrated in the range of 40 million to 60 million, and on the whole, they are relatively average, neither too high nor too low, basically consistent with the official forecast of Warner Bros; In this way, the curve law of feedback and media comprehensive evaluation is somewhat similar - the main opinions are all concentrated in the middle area, neither superior nor inferior, ambiguous, and lack of fierce confrontation between love and hate. It seems that everyone is trying to find a more appropriate and more accurate way to evaluate this work, but it can not be determined in a short time.

And then, that's it.

In fact, people in the industry are more looking forward to the emergence of a popular work than anyone else. Since the opening of the summer program in 2014, there has not been a premiere of any work, and the box office at the weekend has exceeded the threshold of 100 million. This is really disappointing. All the works that are expected are unfortunately lack of explosive power, which also makes the summer program a little dull.

So far, the best summer premiere weekend box office performance is still "Captain America 2", 95 million, so close to the 100 million threshold but so far away.

In addition, the box office of the premieres of three other works exceeded 90 million, closely following "Captain America 2" - namely "Godzilla", "Spider Man 2" and "X-Men: reversing the future". However, the premiere data of all three works were between 90 million and 93 million, and no breakthrough was made.

Now everyone is talking about: is there a premiere this year, and can the box office break the 100 million threshold at the weekend? If "Star Trek" fails to live up to its hope, it seems that "Galaxy guard" and "Transformers 4" are also short of champions. Should they expect "Ninja Turtle"?

After the official launch of "Star Trek", all aspects of the word-of-mouth feedback are dazzling, which also makes the major news media have slightly raised some expectations - perhaps, they underestimated the work; Perhaps, the chemical reaction between Nolan and Langley can cause the market upsurge after all; Maybe they can look forward to the unexpected surprise?

Like Warner Brothers, the industry is also waiting for the emergence of the dark horse, otherwise such a dull summer file, really no fun.

Is this... Looking forward to being beaten in the face?

However, from the popcorn index, theater scores and other data, Star Trek is more likely to be like the second "Inception" than the second "tomorrow's edge".