Chapter 2344

"Youth" vs "Budapest Hotel".

"Youth" vs "Birdman".

"Birdman" vs "pop drummer".

The awards season in 2014 has experienced a long journey of ups and downs. Everyone thought that the Oscar would be a contest between "Youth" and "Birdman". But quietly, the second stage did not stand on the crest of the storm, but firmly refused to fall behind the "pop drummer", completely changing the pattern.

It is worth noting that in 2009, the Academy revised the voting rules for best picture.

Previously, each college judge only needed to choose one best film and one of the five nominated works, which also made the hot works often win strongly. The unexpected encounter of "Saving Private Ryan" and "Brokeback Mountain" was even more shocking.

Since then, each college judge has to arrange the order of all the nominated films, from the first to the last, and the detailed voting rules have also been changed. If a nominated work gets more than 50% of the first support, then it will win the best film.

But if not? Then there will be a second round of counting. Let's use the eight works on this year's list of nominees to make assumptions and explain them more specifically.

Suppose that in the first round of vote counting, the works that choose "Selma March" as the first place have the lowest support rate, then "Selma March" will be out, while those who choose "Selma March" will consider the second place as the first place, to see whether it is "Youth" or "Birdman", and then recalculate with other votes.

This goes on and on until the "first place support rate" of a work exceeds 50%, and then the best film stands out.

The key to the change of the new rules is that each judge may have a different first place in his mind, but the "best" choice of the second and third place can take up more weight, which also makes the No.1 hot seed player in the award season can be defeated if he doesn't pay attention to it, and the best picture will have the possibility of accident.

This year is the best model.

The fierce competition among "Youth", "Budapest Hotel", "Birdman" and "pop drummer" is so fierce that it is difficult to distinguish who is the first. Then, the second and third place in the vote will occupy more advantages.

For example, the black judges who chose "Selma March" as the first place, what is their second place in mind“ After "Selma March" is out, which work will their votes go to?

For example, which of the minority groups that ranked "imitation game" first can win the second or third place on their votes?

This is the real secret of the college's public relations. The "number one seed" who is the strong leader is certainly beautiful, but the number two seed and the number three seed that are closely followed can never be underestimated. As long as we can firmly grasp the situation, then everything is possible.

Two years ago, Ann Lee won the best director for the second time by virtue of "the fantasy drifting of the youth school", which is a similar case. Although the voting rule of the best director is different from that of the best film, the rule of one out of five is still maintained; But the psychology of the judges was very similar. Steven Spielberg of "Lincoln" and Ben Affleck of "fleeing from Tehran" were killed in the dark, and finally all the votes went to "third place" Ann Lee.

Tonight, too.

In the second stage of the award season, the competition between the "Youth" and "Birdman" is particularly fierce, especially the "Birdman" counterattack, which really threatens the position of the number one seed of the "Youth", and the "pop drummer" who is closely followed by the "Birdman" is quietly on the top.

From the distribution of awards so far, "Budapest Hotel" is empty handed in the main awards, and "Youth" has only won a best supporting actress award. Even if there is a possibility of a cold explosion, it is still very slim. Instead, all eyes are focused on "pop drummer" and "Birdman".

"Birdman", best original script, best photography, best director.

"Pop drummer", the best adapted script, the best editing, the best actor, the best supporting actor, the best sound effect.

No matter in quantity or quality, "pop drummer" is better; What's more, the main departments and technical departments are blooming on both sides. From all aspects, the "pop drummer" seems to be more "champion".

A best actor xiaojinren has changed the whole pattern of the award ceremony, not to mention the old foxes like the Weinstein brothers. Even Jack Gyllenhaal, a layman who has no interest in college public relations, can smell the subtle changes in the atmosphere and situation at this time.

So, what else can stop the "pop drummer" from climbing to the top? The second stage of college public relations can reveal some clues

Tradition.

In the final analysis, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a group of old white men with an average age of more than 60 years old. Their aesthetics and concepts are more popular, more traditional, and even stubborn.

At that time, they could refuse to watch "Brokeback Mountain" and chose "crash" by blind election, which made one of the biggest legacy in the history of Oscar; At that time, they could give up the enterprising "social network" and choose the "King's speech", which is still lamented by countless people.

Now, between "Birdman" and "pop drummer", they can also give up the latter and choose the former.

"Pop drummer" is about the extreme and madness of pursuing the perfection of art, but all aspects and corners are challenging the dominant position of traditional authority. In the final stage, the transformation is completed in a way of "patricide", challenging the conservative bottom line of the college judges every minute.

And Andrew's madness and darkness in the story is not ready to please the audience from the beginning of setting, which stimulates the audience's acceptance all the time. From hurting his family to abandoning his girlfriend, the image of "no madness, no survival" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Even though he is perfect in art, he is not a "good man" in morality.

But comparatively speaking, the innovation of "Birdman" comes from the camera scheduling and rhythm control. Although bold, it is acceptable. The core of the story is still Hollywood's favorite: the artists who have fallen to the bottom refuse to surrender, diligently seek the transformation of their career, and continue to struggle even if they are abandoned. That indomitable spirit is the favorite of the judges of traditional colleges, "Although I can't see you and the industry has abandoned you, you still love the industry deeply."

Michael Keaton's role as a birdman in dealing with Batman breaks the boundary between reality and fantasy, and makes the subtle interaction between film and drama show another level of artistic creation. Who can refuse the fact that it's true and false, which comes from life but is higher than life?

Tradition, or conservatism, is the biggest constraint for the "pop drummer" to defeat the "Birdman".

But... Langley hall reversed the victory over Eddie MEDLINE and Michael Keaton to win two Oscars, which became the biggest variable of tonight's awards ceremony.

No one is sure how many judges choose "pop drummer" as the best film when they choose the best actor; In other words, how many judges chose "Youth" or "Budapest Hotel" as the first best film, and then chose "pop drummer" as the second and third.

uncertain.

hear nothing of.

It's unpredictable.

After the best actor of the suspense peak of the 87th Academy Awards ceremony was announced, the best film, which was originally lack of novelty and could not be seen, suddenly became wonderful.

When Langley and Kate left the stage hand in hand, the guests gradually recovered, and then their emotions became subtle and strange.

The Weinstein brothers were reversed.

Bob is always calm and calm. No matter who wins the Oscars, he will be able to accept it. If the "pop drummer" really attacks and wins the Oscars, he doesn't think it is the end of the world. On the contrary, he can teach Harvey a lesson and let Harvey wake up. That's the best.

Of course, it's another pleasure to watch Harvey get shriveled.

Harvey is a little free, uncertain expression, it is difficult to say exactly what he is thinking, but the mixed emotions make him lose his normal heart.

So that they began to doubt themselves.

Is his strategy wrong? Wrong step by step, wrong step by step, and then lose everything?

no

impossible!

How can he be wrong? How could he be confused? Absolutely impossible!

So, how did the current situation come about? Is it... A spy? Weinstein film's internal ghost, which led to their failure to receive timely information, made a wrong judgment on the form of the award season, and eventually led to a series of accidents at the award ceremony——

First, "imitation game" missed the adapted script, and then "theory of everything" missed the hero

yes! It must be!

Harvey's eyes drifted towards Bob, and his mind was so confused that he completely ignored Neil Patrick Harris, who was on the stage. The award ceremony seemed to have nothing to do with it.

Harvey should be the only absent-minded guest in the audience. All the other audience's eyes fell on Neil. This is his last appearance tonight.

"Now there's one final award yet to be announced, and the envelope is about to be opened: my Oscar prediction!"

Neil's string words made all the guests laugh: originally, the magic in the first half of the game had to run through the whole court, waiting to be revealed now?

"Previously, on Thursday, I gave my forecast results to PricewaterhouseCoopers, who promised that they would help me guard my forecast until the truth was revealed. Now, the truth comes. Brian Cullinan, where's the key? "

Neil got the key from Brian of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

At this time, Lan Li, who was finally "released" by the reporters and returned to the standby room, had no time to return to his seat, so he waited for the final result in the standby room. When he saw Bryan currinan on the stage, his smile rose - it was him, this guy, on this stage two years later, The guy who created the mismatched Oolong between "love city" and "Moonlight boy".