Chapter 485： War gaming

Chapter 485 War Deduction

While training black men, the East African army generals were also analyzing Mozambique’s strategic intentions.

Yaman: "Through intelligence analysis of Mozambique, we can confirm that Mozambique's military is now mainly concentrated in the south, with a large number of black people being trained. The specific number is unknown, but it should be no less than 30,000. There is one in Maputo alone. Mando.”

Sweet analyzed: "We can guess how many troops Mozambique will organize based on the maximum capacity. Calculated based on the density of our East African indigenous people in the past, Mozambique's population should be more than two million. It is also possible for Portugal to organize hundreds of thousands of troops. It's possible, but they obviously can't have this strength, and the problem of weapons and equipment cannot be solved. However, if we are forced to rush, hundreds of thousands of people should be able to pull them out. With the help of Britain and France, those tens of thousands of relatively sophisticated military equipment The black troops should be able to be formed, but the combat effectiveness may not be very high, and the Portuguese should be able to provide thousands of troops themselves."

Felix: "Mozambique borders East Africa on three sides, so they have three directions to attack us, one is the Southern Frontier Province, the other is Matabele Province, and the last is Lake Malawi and the Rufuma River in the north. If we assume that the Portuguese mobilized 50,000 troops, they could only attack in one direction."

Sweet: "Our defense system along the Rufuma River is very complete. For more than ten years, we have used the Rufuma River as the default boundary for both sides, so the defenses along the river are very good. If Mozambique has blacks as the main force, , attacking the front line of the Rufuma River is absolutely stupid."

Merk: "I don't think so. The Rufuma River defense line relies on river and lake troops. In this regard, the capabilities of our river and lake troops are actually very limited. For example, the middle and upper reaches are not covered, and the Rufuma River is It’s very long, especially in the west, where the Rufuma River doesn’t extend all the way to Lake Malawi, so there’s this big gap.”

Sweet: "But correspondingly, the Portuguese have no advantage on the front line of the Rufuma River. They have almost no development on the south bank of the Rufuma River. We have river and lake troops to support us on the Rufuma River. They may not even be able to ferry. We can’t get it all together, unless we make a temporary batch to cross the river.”

Halman: “Do you think there is a high possibility of an attack on the provinces of South Frontier and Hechingen?”

“It is very possible that these two places are too close to Maputo. I believe the Portuguese have the greatest pressure on these two provinces.”

"Hechingen Province is blocked by the Drakensberg Mountains and has natural geographical advantages. The Portuguese should not focus on Hechingen Province, so the military power in the Southern Frontier Province should be strengthened. We are in the Southern Frontier Province The focus of military defense is on the Tugela River line in the south, mainly to deal with the British, and the northern line does not pay enough attention."

"If Portugal really attacks the Southern Frontier Province, they can only go south from the coastal plain. This area is relatively narrow. Another brigade of troops should be enough. Our strategic goal cannot be to capture Maputo from the beginning. Otherwise, the Portuguese may simply surrender, so the northern front of Southern Frontier Province should be focused on defense.”

…

While East Africa was formulating a combat strategy against Portugal, the two good brothers, Britain and France, were also helping Portugal with plans. However, compared with the calmness of the East African Army, the military personnel of Britain and France had a headache.

"The terrain of Mozambique is not conducive to defense. It can be said that it is heavy at the two ends and light in the middle. It can be easily broken at the waist. However, whether it can be cut off by East Africa in the middle depends on the strength of the interior of East Africa and the deployment of troops in East Africa. "

"East Africa's military strength is mainly concentrated in two areas, one in the south and one in the north. The number and strength of the East African army on the other side of the Rufuma River should be the strongest, followed by the south. East Africa's military strength in South Africa is not bad. They I have a natural fear of Cape Town." British instructor Johnson said proudly.

It is easy for the British to make this judgment, because East Africa does deploy its troops in this way. North of the Rufuma River is the absolute core area of ​​East Africa, and South Africa and East Africa have also made great efforts to deploy military forces, which is to prevent British influence. Go north.

Johnson said: "So although there are more troops in East Africa, there are more areas to defend. They have been restrained by us at least 50% of their military strength. If it weren't for Portugal's inaction, East Africa would not have expanded so fast. "

The French instructor was unhappy when he saw the British guy needing a beating, but the Portuguese were indeed too incompetent. They had stayed in Africa for hundreds of years and relied on living on their laurels to make a living. As a result, they were bullied to the head by the Germans who came from behind. It was so embarrassing.

This is just standing up and talking without hurting your back. If Portugal really has the courage and strength to expand in Africa, then I am afraid that Britain, France and Germany will join forces to deal with the Portuguese today.

As for why Portugal has not made much progress in Africa, it is really not the fault of the two colonial governments. In the past, the biological son of the Portuguese Kingdom was Brazil, and its main investment was also in Brazil. Who would have thought that Brazil would become independent directly. Without Brazil, the Portuguese government is still extremely chaotic internally and has no energy to coordinate with the outside world. It is extremely self-consumed and is destroying the remaining colonies. Moreover, the sequela of Brazil's independence is that the Portuguese government is even more secretive about investing in colonies. What should I do if it fails again?

Compared with East Africa, which treats East Africa as its own local development, the natural development of Mozambique and Angola is unsatisfactory. The development of East Africa involves continuous investment, regardless of cost, while the development of Mozambique and Angola is actually restricted, and the local development of Mozambique and Angola is still in two places. Blood-sucking, after all, the local economy is not good, and the landlord's family has no surplus food.

“So of these two areas, I think the northern part can only focus on defense. Our goal is to attack and dismember East Africa. It is too unrealistic to eliminate East Africa. It is better to focus on South Africa.”

The reason why Johnson thinks so is that he wants to use the Portuguese to consume East Africa's strength in South Africa. After all, Cape Town is still watching helplessly!

The French saw through the British's little thoughts and said: "You have said before that East Africa has invested a lot in military affairs in South Africa. I don't think it is appropriate for Portugal to focus on this area."

Mozambique Governor Lyford agreed very much and said: "What Colonel Clement said makes sense. There are many people in East Africa. If we mainly invest our military strength in South Africa, it may not be good for us, so we cannot put our eggs in one basket." .”

The existence of the Southern Frontier Province does pose a great threat to the security of Maputo, but if Portugal pulls out this nail, it will have to be neighbors with the British, so it is better to let East Africa stay there! As the British themselves said, they have restrained the energy of East Africa, so East Africa cannot deal with Portugal wholeheartedly in the Southern Frontier Province.

This is a multiple-choice question. The question is that both answers have pros and cons. However, in Lyford's view, the threat from Britain is greater than that from East Africa. To deal with East Africa, Portugal can choose Britain and France to balance it. Who will check and balance against the British? Depend on France? I am afraid they will sell Portugal in exchange for British concessions in other areas, such as West Africa.

Although the threat from East Africa to Mozambique is imminent, speaking from conscience, East Africa has been really good to Mozambique in recent years and has never done anything excessive. On the contrary, the United Kingdom has a criminal record.

The fault of East Africa is that its strength is expanding too fast, which scares the Portuguese. Moreover, this time Britain and France guarantee that even if Portugal is defeated, East Africa will not let East Africa swallow up Mozambique and Angola. If East Africa insists on going its own way, then the two countries will join forces to implement Pressure on East Africa, so there is a guarantee, is the real reason why the Portuguese dare to take chestnuts from the fire. If they win against Mozambique, they will make a lot of money, and it is even possible to connect Angola and Mozambique. This is not much worse than the original Brazilian colony. If they lose, Even if we lose everything, we will still be able to keep the colonies of Mozambique and Angola.

Johnson saw that the plan could not succeed, and he was very unhappy and said: "Then what do you think?"

Clement: "I think we should be on the defensive in both the north and south directions, especially Maputo. Although it is very close to the southern colonies of East Africa, it is simply impossible for East Africa to capture Maputo. Maputo's defense I dare say it is one of the most outstanding areas in Africa. Without heavy weapons and a large number of troops, it is basically impossible to win here."

It’s not that Clement is praising the Portuguese, but he is saying realistically that Maputo is indeed the most difficult fortress to break through in the entire sub-Saharan Africa. I am afraid that only Cape Town, a century-old city in the entire sub-Saharan Africa, can compete with Maputo. High or low.

“What if East Africa attacks from the sea? East Africa’s naval strength is not bad. They almost purchased an entire navy from the Austrians.”

"This requires the cooperation of our two navies. No matter how strong the East African navy is, can it be stronger than our two countries? We must first formulate a military ultimatum to prohibit any naval power in the East Indian Ocean region from intervening in this war."

This is to tie one hand of East Africa and fight Portugal. However, if Britain and France open their mouths, Ernst has to admit that they are indeed very powerful. The East African navy cannot withstand the joint efforts of the first and second navies in the world. toss.

Clement continued: "The focus of our offensive should be on the central part, attacking the hinterland of East Africa. This is the weakness of Mozambique, in other words, it is also the weakness of East Africa. The north and south are on the defensive and waiting to attack, to contain the main force of East Africa, and the middle Quickly cut off the connection between the north and south of the East African Kingdom, Angola and Mozambique will join forces in the central region of East Africa, so that southern East Africa will also become an enclave, so the threat of East Africa will be greatly reduced."

If Clement's plan succeeds, East Africa will lose the middle zone dominated by Zimbabwe and Zambia. After the connection with the east is cut off, South Africa and Southwest Africa will become lambs to be slaughtered. East Africa may really become East Africa. Go back ten years ago.

However, this is only an ideal state. Not only did Britain, France and Portugal misjudge the real military strength of East Africa, they also ignored the existence of a major weapon of war in East Africa. The reason why the French failed in the last Franco-Prussian War was inseparable from the Prussian railway construction. The French once again ignored this problem. East Africa has a major artery in the interior, and it can rely on the central railway to support weak links on the battlefield at any time. .

(End of this chapter)