Chapter 996： Western population forecast

Chapter 996 Western Population Expectation

The First Five-Year Plan focused on the development of the west. Beginning in 1900, East Africa's investment in western towns, mines, and agriculture increased significantly, especially in cities such as Cabinda, Luanda, Benguela, Kinshasa, and Bangui. Much higher than the Thunderous and Rainy Small Dar es Salaam City Circle, or Oriental Province's self-funded Greater Mombasa Plan.

“During the First Five-Year Plan, more than 200 new towns will be established in the west, especially in the vacuum area between the coast and the center, that is, Kasai Province, Lunda Province, Okavango Province and other regions. It is planned to introduce a large number of new towns. population to settle and work locally.”

"At the same time, the population size of important cities such as Cabinda and Luanda will be supplemented. During the First Five-Year Plan, at least two emerging cities with a population of more than 500,000 will be built in the west to balance the city of Dar es Salaam in the east. and the city of Mombasa.”

It goes without saying that the two cities are definitely Luanda and Cabinda, with Cabinda corresponding to Mombasa and Luanda corresponding to Dar es Salaam.

The development of the new western part of East Africa can be compared to the development of the West Coast by the United States, or the development of the Far East by Russia. Of course, the natural conditions of western East Africa are better than those of the western United States, and Russia has invested heavily in the development and construction of the Far Eastern Empire. In fact, it is very It is difficult to achieve results.

“In the past ten years, we have renovated and constructed Angola’s industries and original infrastructure based on the original colony of Angola. With the efforts of millions of black workers and more than four million East African people, Angola’s overall transportation system is now , water conservancy, etc. have been fully improved. In contrast, the local population is unevenly distributed, especially in the middle and eastern parts.

With a population of four million (not counting black people), this level is even lower than that of Russian Siberia. In the last Russian census in 1897, the total population of Russian Siberia was more than five million, close to six million.

So Ernst said: "During the First Five-Year Plan, the total population of Angola will exceed at least 10 million, so that it can take on the important task of becoming a new pillar of national economic construction."

"Rational use of the land and sea advantages of the western region will focus on the development of industries such as equipment manufacturing and power industry, especially the promotion of urbanization, converting the agricultural population in eastern East Africa into urban population here, and promoting the progress of urbanization in East Africa."

There is no doubt that the focus of the East African government has completely shifted to the stage of industrialization, so East Africa does not pay much attention to improving agriculture in the west.

Because during this period, even the more developed central and eastern regions of East Africa were actively carrying out depopulation of agriculture.

Therefore, the construction in Angola is completely different from the past immigration and development process in East Africa. In the past, East Africa used agriculture first and then industry, but now East Africa's agricultural production activities are approaching their peak.

Of course, depopulation of agriculture does not mean not developing agriculture, but rather no longer developing labor-intensive agriculture, but promoting mechanized agriculture, thereby reducing the demand for agricultural population.

Although agricultural construction has a positive significance for the population growth of East Africa, East Africa cannot bear the trend of continued high-speed population growth. Today, the population of East Africa has exceeded 80 million (excluding black people), second only to Russia in the world, and is still at a disadvantage. in the high growth stage.

If the industrial structure of East Africa is not adjusted in time and efforts are made to develop industry, East Africa is likely to fall into a vicious cycle in which economic growth is held back by population growth.

In fact, the East African government has felt the pressure and has significantly increased social expenditures such as medical care and education. However, agricultural production activities cannot support these expenditures because agricultural profits are far less than those of industry. Even if the agricultural sales in East Africa are unimpeded, the income will only be will continue to fall.

On the one hand, the development of their own countries or their colonies by countries around the world has led to continued growth in the output and categories of food, dairy products, and cash crops, further intensifying competition in world agriculture.

A typical example is the sharp increase in Argentina's dairy and livestock products, which is bound to have an impact on the dairy and livestock markets in other countries and regions. Argentina has a vast land and sparse population, favorable climate conditions, and low shipping costs. Its exported dairy and livestock products are of high quality and low price. At least the livestock industry in East Africa is difficult to compete with Argentina overseas. The advantage of East African agriculture lies in tropical cash crops. In this field, East Africa undoubtedly ranks first in comprehensive strength in the world. However, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean are also developing, and the technical threshold is not high, so they are also facing greater challenges. Competitive pressure.

If the population of East Africa is only 20 to 30 million, or 40 to 50 million, and remains stable at this value, then agricultural profits are still very promising, but the population of East Africa is second only to European, American and Asian countries in the world, and the population is growing rapidly. , and with agricultural profits continuing to decline, industrial development is currently the only way out for East Africa.

This is easy to understand. Among countries with similar area and large population, the only objects that East Africa can refer to are the United States and Tsarist Russia. Although the population data of countries such as Britain, France, and Germany are not bad, their area is too small to be of reference significance.

There is no doubt that Tsarist Russia is a country with more agriculture than industry, while the United States is already a relatively developed industrial country. The future situation of the two countries in the previous life is also very clear, that is, the domestic crisis in Tsarist Russia will become increasingly serious, and the regime will eventually change, while the United States will take over world hegemony.

Although the Soviet Union later emerged and led the former Russian region to become the first level of world hegemony, the gap between the Soviet Union and the United States had widened by that time. The gap between the two countries was at least forty or fifty years. Even under the Soviet model The Soviet Union's economy grew rapidly, but it was difficult to close the gap.

The most representative data is the urbanization rate of the two countries. By the 1980s, the Soviet Union's urbanization level barely reached 60%, while other developed countries were generally above 70%.

Therefore, it is very important for East Africa to seize the economic development window in the early 20th century, including taking advantage of opportunities such as economic crises and wars.

During the previous world war, the original production activities of European countries were completely shifted to military industry in order to plunge into the bottomless pit of war. You must know that before the war, Europe was the most industrially developed region in the world, and European civilian industrial production activities were due to the war. Stagnation has given up the largest share of the world market.

In the previous life, the world's largest market, which had been ceded due to war, was almost eaten up by the United States alone. The improvement to American industry and society is immeasurable.

There is no doubt that the world war is also a huge opportunity for East Africa, but if it wants to seize this opportunity, East Africa must first build its own industrial base. In this case, it can make a lot of war fortune.

Therefore, in the first decade of the 20th century, Ernst went all out for industrial construction in East Africa. Only countries with developed industries and outside the European region could more comfortably enjoy the dividends of the war economy.

This brings us to the Far East Empire. In its previous life, the economy of the Far East Empire actually enjoyed the dividends of World War I. During this period, national capitalism gained leaps and bounds, or a chance to breathe. However, due to the country’s weak industrial base, it suffered The war dividends are not even comparable to those of Japan.

After all, Europe's demand for various materials due to war is almost unlimited, and only industrial countries outside Europe can reap the bulk of the war dividends.

In the previous world, there were only two developed industrial countries outside Europe, the United States and Japan. In this time and space, due to the sudden rise of East Africa, there should be three. The industrial level of East Africa may be different from that of European and American countries, but its strength is far superior to Japan. , and because of its geographical location, East Africa is easier to eat from both ends than the United States. The trade between the United States and Europe is completely dependent on the Atlantic Ocean and will inevitably be restricted by the United Kingdom. However, East Africa can transport resources to the two camps through the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean.

(End of chapter)