Chapter 1695

“。。。 Boss, all in all, 2009 will be a turning year for the world economy. We can see the amazing consistency between the Dow Jones stock index and the population consumption age curve.

Obviously, the stock market reflects the performance expectations of listed companies, and the performance of companies depends on product sales. Sales naturally come from people's consumption, which drives more than 70% of GDP in the United States.

And consumption needs consumers, young and powerful consumers... "

Andy, with his arms around him, leans on the boss's chair and listens with interest to a young elite in the think tank opposite the computer monitor, expounding his views on population and economy.

From the basic trend of the current economy, the panic of the financial crisis seems to subside temporarily, and the light of hope for economic recovery seems to be in front of us.

However, real people of insight know that what they need to focus on is not what happened in the financial tsunami, but what will happen in the world after the financial tsunami.

The view that the world will enter the consumption ice age put forward by the members of the think tank allows Andy to see the future world economy and formulate strategies from a new perspective.

"Boss, look, from the picture, we can see that the last turning point of the baby boom generation is in 1962..."

Young members of the think tank stood in front of the projector, pointed out a picture with a laser pen, and continued calmly: "considering that the United States is a huge moving min country, the population curve has been adjusted by the immigration population.

Please note the figure for 1962.

From 1946 to 1964, the population born in the United States reached 77 million, accounting for a quarter of the population of the United States. This group of people is the backbone of today's American society.

With the growth of these baby boomers, the U.S. economy has entered a dazzling boom period...

It has created the largest stock market increase, house price increase and the demand for international aviation, personal computer, computer network and sports and leisure tools in history.

According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of labor, the highest consumption peak of American life is at the age of 47. At this time, the life is in the prime of life, the age is strong, and the income reaches the peak.

Once they are 47 years old, people begin to think about retirement and pension, and their bodies are getting old, so they have to prepare to see a doctor and take medicine. From then on, people's expectation of future income declines, consumption begins to decline gradually, and life becomes increasingly frugal.

With the increase of age, all kinds of YW began to decline simultaneously.

Let's look back at the 1962 baby boomers who were born at the turning point

With the laser pen on another chart, the people in the conference room and Andy, who is far away in San Francisco, look a little more serious.

"After 47 years of luxury life, this group came to the turning point of their lives, 2009.

The world suddenly darkened, the economic prosperity suddenly disappeared, the financial tsunami hit the bank, and the unemployment tide swept in.

At this time, they suddenly found that the pension they had invested in the stock market had lost nearly half, and the deposits in bank accounts had always been "thin as a cicada wing" due to years of extravagance. At the same time, their indulgent living habits and wanton ahead consumption had already made them tired of debt.

Under such circumstances, they will fall sharply from the normal aging consumption curve, and speed up the speed and strength of tightening their belts to cope with the cruel economic cold current in the future.

In 2009, it happened to be on the edge of the cliff represented by the population consumption curve. Another step forward is the turning point of "consumption waterfall".

When the last generation of "baby boomers" slipped past the peak age of consumption in 2009 at the age of 47, it was followed by a sharp decline in consumption cycle, which lasted until 2024.

This will be a 14 year cycle of consumption decline. Under the condition of high debt, the U.S. consumer market will fall into a long ice age comparable to the 1930s!

Please note that neither monetary nor fiscal policy will have a significant effect on an aging generation, and that these policies will eventually lead to a return to old age. It is unrealistic to encourage the elderly to borrow money and spend. The shrinking consumption year by year will make the current bright economic recovery lose the fertile credit soil.

What's more, the population cycle in Europe is the same as that in the United States, and the two major economic sectors in Europe and the United States will fall into a long-term consumption ice age at the same time.

This will be a great change in the economic and ecological environment for all emerging countries with serious overcapacity, whose main export targets are European and American markets. Countries that cannot adapt to this catastrophic change will be eliminated, and the road ahead will be extremely difficult. "

Hearing this, Andy's brow was already frowned, and he said without any consideration: "there are two big population countries, China and India, their markets..."

"Bosses, both in China and India, are emerging countries with serious overcapacity whose main export targets are European and American markets. However, China's markets have not been fully liberalized, and their population policies have made them gradually aging, and the red profit of population will gradually disappear in the next ten years. As for India, the poor and the rich are hesitant The gap is too big, the population appears to be a big market, but their consumption capacity remains to be observed. "Andy didn't feel unhappy because his subordinates interrupted him. On the contrary, after hearing the explanation from the other side, he thought deeply that, after all, before he came here, the Chinese government had already let go of giving birth to children. Listening to his subordinates' explanation, he also had a kind of feeling.

As if to testify these views, alvette, who has been listening attentively, reported to Andy: "boss, I just got a set of data this morning, and the revised retail data in January also rose by 1.8%."

Andy raised his eyebrows slightly and nodded his head, which is undoubtedly good news. It is good news that can promote the stock market to continue to rebound. The recovery of retail sales is regarded as a key indicator of economic reversal, because the sales expenditure in the United States accounts for two-thirds of the total economy.

"Has the news been released? That's good news. The retail data makes people feel that there is still an independent force necessary for economic recovery. "

The U.S. stock market didn't last for a long time. The rise of financial and technology stocks was offset by the decline of energy and medical sectors. Especially, investors' optimism about the banking industry soon subsided. Doubts about the overall market outlook hit the market again in midday, and the main stock indexes even stopped rising and fell.

If you want the stock market to continue to rebound and rise, you really need some good news to support you. Andy doesn't worry about the stock index's rise and fall in the afternoon. After all, he knows that there will be several good news released in the afternoon. However, now he knows that the retail data in January has risen, which can obviously boost the stock market's good news Rest, he will not despise.

Inventory is decreasing, supply and demand are gradually balanced, surviving companies will have a more solid foundation, and unemployment may also be gradually reduced. In this case, even the general public knows that at least there are signs of an economic reversal from these data, even if it may not happen in the next few months.

"It has been released. If the stock market still moves in a narrow range one hour before the closing, it will not be released until the Federal Reserve implements a new policy of more quantitative easing. At least, it will ensure this year's rise and continue the momentum of yesterday's rebound." Alvert said solemnly.

Andy nodded, and then said to the young elite who had made a statement before: "Jack Claude, it's done well. It's a wonderful statement. Continue to work hard and continue to study according to your direction. If there is an internal law in the economy, then the role of human resources must follow the trend, be familiar with the law and control the ups and downs, which is very important for investors. ”

"thank you, boss. I will continue to work hard. " Jack Claude is a little excited to thank the big boss for his recognition and praise.

"Well, in fact, you can go to the TianChao field and have a look. For the big market of TianChao, we can't miss the opportunity brought by their demographic dividend." Andy nodded contentedly, then suggested.

"All right, boss." Jack Claude knows that his opportunity is coming. In the brain trust with talents, what he is afraid of is that the boss doesn't notice and can be arranged by the boss, which definitely indicates that there is an opportunity in front of him. How can he not firmly grasp it.

Andy nodded his head to the satisfaction of the other party's attitude, and then he continued to listen to the reports of other people. He wanted the role of the think tank to make these people use their brain holes to summarize the analysis, creativity and views of this group of elites and broaden their thinking. Otherwise, what would they do to support them!