Chapter 518： Wintry

St. Petersburg. Since the failure of Crown Prince Alexandrovich to visit Austria, the Tsarist government has realized that the Russian-Austrian alliance has come to an end.

Three feet of freezing, not a day cold. Over time, contradictions between Russia and Austria have gradually accumulated.

Earlier, the governments of the two countries relied on the covenant to suppress the discord, but now it can't be suppressed.

Russia-Austria relations have changed since Alexander II's succession. The personal influence of emperors in monarchy countries should not be underestimated.

After the outbreak of the Prussian-Russian war, Austria did not fully support the Russians. In addition to its interests, it was still more dissatisfied with the Tsarist government.

No big country is willing to be a younger brother, especially after the strength comparison between the two sides changes. The first game between Russia and Austria was actually a struggle for alliance dominance.

Alexander II's approach was correct, but the bureaucracy of the Tsarist government did not fight and lost the Pu-Russian war. The Russian empire has since turned from prosperity to decline and lost the dominance of the alliance.

If the Tsarist government is willing to admit defeat, then it will be over, and the Russian-Austrian alliance will remain the most important political power group in Europe.

Obviously this is impossible. The pride of the Russian Empire cannot be defeated in one battle. Opening up the long history of the Russian Empire, we have passed even worse times than now. How could the Tsar really give up continental hegemony?

Franz is not very interested in continental hegemony, but Austria's geographical location has already been determined, and it can't be avoided in the struggle for continental hegemony.

Austria's weight is left there, and even if you say that you are not interested, no one can believe it. In this case, you can only bite the bullet. It is against this background that France and Austria share the European continental hegemony.

For the Tsarist government, the collapse of the Russian-Austrian alliance is indeed a blow, but the two countries' covenant is still a few years before it expires, and there is no threat in the short term.

The most important thing now is to find a gold master who is willing to pay in time, otherwise the reform of Alexander II will not proceed.

The ideal choice is of course Austria. The tsarist government can use foreign debt to tie the two countries closer together. Now the Vienna government dares to abandon the Russian-Olympic alliance because they owe not enough.

If the Tsar's debt owed to Austria is not now 183 million Aegis, but 1.83 billion Aegis, no matter what, it is estimated that the Vienna government will only support it.

According to the current situation, after the Russian-Austrian alliance expires, the debt owed by the Tsarist government will still be seven or seventy-eight.

This is not something that Alexander II can delay. The Austrians only take Russian tariffs, and they have more than 12 million Aegis each year.

The higher the tsarist government set the tariffs, the faster this repayment will be. In addition, there are still some in-kind compensation for mineral resources, and Russia can still repay more than 90% of its debts payable each year.

Mortgages cannot be accounted for by Alexander II. Otherwise, Russia and Austria will immediately turn their heads. When Austria closes the trade channel between the two countries, Russia will soon have an economic crisis.

There is no way, this is determined by the geographical location. If Austria blocked the door, more than 70 percent of Russia's exports would be dead.

Grain in the Ukrainian region does not travel through the Dardanelles. It can never be transported by land to St. Petersburg, and then loaded and exported.

According to the current international situation, if Russia and Austria turn their heads down, the Russian Empire will be completely blocked. Austria encouraged behind it and sponsored two iron armored ships, and Prussia dared to block the Baltic Sea.

Now is the era of ironclad ships. The pile of broken ships in the Russian Navy can be dismantled for firewood. Most of them are wooden warships that have not been updated for more than two decades. What else do you want?

It is not that Alexander II did not attach importance to the navy and did not know that the warships would be replaced. It was because the government had no money in its pockets. With the outbreak of the Crimean War, the Tsarist government's finances have never been better.

Puao's approach to Alexander II is not worried. Although the Kingdom of Prussia has abandoned its strategy of unifying the German region, Austria has not yet.

Alexander II's relationship asked: "How are you talking to the British, and they would not provide us with a loan?"

This time the loan was extraordinary. The Russians paid for the food. If the British agreed to grant the loan, the tsarist government would send 1.2 million tons of wheat, 400,000 tons of corn, 300,000 tons of barley to England every year ...

What looks like a loan is actually better than a grain export. However, in the international agricultural market, the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products is too low.

If low-price dumping is carried out directly, then if international food prices are beaten down, the relatively high cost of planting Russian agricultural products will become unprofitable.

In order to avoid the worst, Russian economists have proposed a loan bundle sale to contract a country's food imports at a price lower than the international market.

Reduced profits are the financial cost of the loan. It's better than fighting a price war with a competitor.

"His Majesty, the British demanded that the loan amount be halved, and also reduce the food settlement price by one-fifth, which is equivalent to 70% of the current international food export price."

The reply of Foreign Minister Clarence-Ivanov made Alexander II's face look so different that the export of grain was not a profiteering industry, and even if it was a 30% discount, the cost would not be recovered.

Alexander II asked impassively: "What if we promised to join the free trade system and let the ruble be linked to the pound?"

Clarence-Ivanov replied: "If this is the case, there will be no problem with the loan, but food prices will remain undiscussed.

British food merchants believe that the current international food prices are too high and will fall sharply in the near future, insisting that they only accept 70% of the current market price. "

If at the current market price, the total value of agricultural products that Russia plans to transport into the UK is as high as 38 million pounds, if it is a 30% discount, it will be only 26.6 million pounds, and the difference in the middle will be 11.4 million pounds.

Alessandrovich said with a blushing face: "The British are blackmailing, and we absolutely cannot accept such a condition!

At 70% off the market price, we have to be able to make a profit from the export of grain, but we will lose a sum.

Unless the grain purchase price is further reduced, the domestic grain price is already very low, and further pressure on the people to plant land is losing money. "

Grain is a big commodity, and transportation has always been a big problem. The Russian Empire has inconvenient transportation and high transportation costs, and these costs must be taken into account.

Usually these costs ultimately fall on the farmers who produce the grain. Now if they export at 70% off the market price, and then fall on the farmers, they can only go bankrupt.

The peasant class is the Tsar's largest support group. This is the cornerstone of rule. If they are all forced into bankruptcy, the rule of the Tsar government will be unstable.

Alexander II sighed and shook his head, saying, "The plunge in international food prices has become a foregone conclusion, and the British are right.

The international market is so big, and we have increased so much grain output. Once put on the market, international grain prices will collapse.

To put it bluntly, if Russia's surplus grain can be shipped out, even if other grain exporting countries stop exporting, there will be no food panic in Europe. "

This is the aftermath of the great wasteland. Although the domestic land problem has been solved, the excess food production capacity has also become a serious social problem.

Even more tragic is the enthusiasm of farmers who have just obtained land, and Russia's grain output is still rising.

With the decline in grain prices, Russia's grain brewing industry has begun to flourish. However, this high-end wine cannot be consumed by ordinary people at all, and the market is very limited. It is impossible to rely on the wine industry to consume excess grain capacity.

Alessandrovic thought for a while and said, "Then guide farmers to grow cash crops. Whatever is missing in the market, we will grow what we plant.

If domestic food production is not reduced, the international food market will sooner or later be burst. As far as I know, the Vienna government has intentionally cancelled the agricultural tax.

Their food production costs are lower than ours, and they have a complete supporting industrial processing chain. Their anti-risk capability is definitely better than ours. If a price war breaks out, there will probably be millions of bankrupts in China every year. "

Alexander II nodded, and he did not suspect that Alexandrovich exaggerated. This is a fact. Except for Ukraine, the cost of land and food production in Russia is relatively high.

Even in Ukraine, because of insufficient development and utilization, agricultural production technology here is backward. Obviously it is black land, and as a result, the yield per mu of grain is still not comparable to Austria.

This is a sequela of insufficient markets. In any case, the total population of the European continent is less than 300 million, and most of the food produced by countries meets most of the demand.

The only way to expand the grain export market is to first hit the market with low-price grain and knock down agricultural production in various countries.

Alexander II originally planned it this way. As long as the agriculture of the countries that collapsed, Russia would have the lifeblood of the European continent.

A plan is a good plan. The only problem is the lack of financial resources of the Tsarist government. The strength of the competitors is too strong, and dumping at low prices will not only defeat the agriculture of various countries, but also the Russian agriculture.

In fact, not only Alexander II had this plan, Franz also made a similar plan, but in the end he gave up.

There is no way. Now is the colonial era. Which power is missing a food-producing land? Insufficient local food production, can't the colony find a way?

If you can't monopolize, you can't get through with your wallet if you play dumping at a low price. Now agriculture still makes money, there is no need to make no profit at all.

Alexander II was in a low mood, and said earnestly: "It is necessary to reduce the production capacity of grain and replant cash crops, but this cannot be done overnight. The cultivation of grain is relatively simple, and farmers are used to it.

To change this traditional cultivation pattern, we must learn from Austria. Alexandrovic, you have been to Austria, and you should know how well their agriculture is developed. Where is the gap, did you spot it? "

Alexandrovich was lost in thought. He didn't stay in Austria for a long time. His understanding was limited to Vienna, and most of the time he went through the newspaper.

"There should be climate, transportation, agricultural technology, and supporting processing industries. There is no way we can make up for the gap in the climate, and the next three points can slowly catch up."

Alexander II nodded and said, "Since that is the case, we will have the loss.

If we do not reach an agreement with the British now, I am afraid that after a few months of autumn harvest, our grain will not even be able to sell 70% of the current market price, and the price is even lower than hitting it in our hands.

If there is no large-scale natural disaster, and when our grain harvest enters the international market, this year is bound to be an agricultural cold winter, when a large amount of agricultural products will be unsaleable.

Anyway, when you have to lose money, it is better to get the loan first. At that time, we can also reduce or exempt agricultural taxes and reduce farmers' losses.

Only when the railway is repaired and the domestic transportation problem is solved can the Russian Empire have a future. Now let the British be proud!

If it wasn't for the fight against Austria, perhaps the British would not open on this condition. They do not lack this batch of cheap grain, and the grain processing industry in Britain is not very developed.

If the London government does not give preferential policies, these food merchants will not invest in the agricultural processing industry. After all, Austria is the hegemony in this field and they have no advantage. "

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