Chapter 533： First zero three

After the agricultural crisis broke out in St. Petersburg, it became the center of a whirlpool of storms.

European public opinion has accused the Russians of deliberately creating an agricultural crisis in an attempt to overwhelm the European agricultural production system and monopolize European food supplies.

This statement is also true. The Tsarist government did have such a plan, but the agricultural crisis broke out before it could be implemented.

Agriculture is the most difficult industry to monopolize. There are almost no thresholds, and anyone can farm. The land suitable for farming these days is everywhere, and no colonial empire needs to be controlled by others.

The Tsarist government has a monopoly on European food supplies, but it has no ability to implement them. Russian agricultural production costs are not dominant, and it is almost impossible to win in the competition.

Facing the overwhelming accusations of public opinion, Alexander II decisively chose to ignore it. Anyway, in the European continent, the Tsarist government has been scolded, and he is used to it.

Public opinion can be ignored, but the reactions of European governments can not help Alexander II not to worry.

As of April 1873, many politicians have publicly stated that they will impose tariffs on imported agricultural products to protect their agriculture.

The import tariffs on all agricultural products are added together. It seems that behind the fairness, there is actually a lot of bad faith.

Of the four largest agricultural product exporters in Europe, the Kingdom of Prussia has the smallest market share and the least impact.

The Kingdom of Poland ranks second from the bottom. Now it has fallen into internal struggles. No matter how bad the situation worsens, it can't be worse.

Although the Russian Empire ranked second in terms of total exports, they still deserved the boss in this amount.

Austria has the largest total exports. In addition to domestic grain processing, agricultural products from Russia and Poland are also imported for processing, most of which are supported by added value of products.

After the agricultural crisis broke out, the Tsarist government also prepared to do it by itself, leaving no opportunity for Austrians to make a difference.

Unfortunately, the domestic industrial strength is too weak, which leads to high processing costs, and loses competitiveness in the face of cruel market competition.

Affected by the agricultural crisis, Austrian agricultural processing companies have reduced their production capacity, and Russia ’s total agricultural exports to Austria have also declined, but they still account for more than half of total foreign agricultural exports.

From the perspective of interests, both sides can be regarded as losing all and losing glory. Not long after this, Alexander II received a telegram from the Austrian Association of Agricultural Products Processing Enterprises, hoping that they would reduce total grain exports.

A large amount of cheap raw grain was exported to the international market and directly into European countries. This is also a life-and-death battle for Austria's agricultural processing companies.

The market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and these processing companies will certainly not wait. It's impossible to lose money at a loss.

The capitalists are very savvy. The seemingly bland telegram is actually an ultimatum.

Capital is profit-seeking. If there is no profit in the processing of agricultural products, capitalists will not mind abandoning it immediately.

Since 1872, savvy capitalists have been transforming. It is now in the outbreak of the second industrial revolution. There are still many projects that can be invested. There is no need to hang on a tree.

If the Russians are willing to reduce the total grain exports, everyone's profits will be guaranteed, and business can continue.

Otherwise, things won't work out. Affected by the plunge in grain prices, almost every grain capitalist's warehouse is full of grain, waiting for the market to pick up.

If you don't see the hope, everyone can only leave with pain. This is definitely not a good thing for the Russians. Because of the relationship between the Russian and Austrian alliances, Austrian processing companies have always given priority to purchasing Russian agricultural products.

In continental Europe, the situation is completely different. Under the same conditions, few capitalists are willing to cooperate with the Russians.

This is a sequel to loss of credibility and cannot be remedied in a short time. Russian agricultural exports now rely on cheap.

The continuous decline in international food prices was actually dragged down by Russian food exports. In order to sell the grain, they had to cut prices.

When the Russians reduced the price of grain exports, the market could only follow suit. Today's international food prices are at their lowest point in decades, and everyone's profits have been squeezed.

Alexander II knew the consequences of doing so, but looking at the piles of grain, they could only sell it if they lost money.

Moreover, the definition of "loss of money" cannot be generalized. The exported grain is exchanged for foreign exchange, while the domestic circulation is paper rubles.

The ruble issued by the Tsarist government is not recognized by the outside world. In international trade, gold, silver, pound sterling, Aegis, francs are currently the most used.

The international reputation of the ruble is not as good as the crown of the Nordic Federation, nor is it comparable to the Dutch Guilder of the Netherlands. Even the Swiss franc and the Prussian mark are more popular than the ruble.

From the perspective of national development, even if it suffers again, the tsarist government must obtain foreign exchange as much as possible, otherwise the trade deficit will not be balanced, which will lead to the outflow of gold and silver.

It's just not a way to keep paying. The Tsarist government has devalued the ruble twice in order to smooth the losses.

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow for the ruble, which has just undergone the gold standard reform, and severely damaged market confidence.

Currency cannot continue to depreciate. Economists have issued a warning to Alexander II. If you continue to play like this, the market will be ruined. Let ’s continue to use gold and silver as currency!

Adjusted the mood, Alexander II: "Telegram of the Austrian Agricultural Processing Industry Association, what do you think?"

An industry association could threaten him directly, which made Alexander II very angry. If not, he really wants to sever the transaction between the two parties.

Of course, if you think about it, you really have to do it. Without this biggest buyer, their lives would be even more difficult.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Kristanval: "His Majesty, unless countries reduce food exports together and increase food prices, we must not reduce exports.

At present, there are still a large number of unsalable agricultural products in China, especially in the newly developed Siberia. There is no one to ask for the local food, and the government's tax revenue is all food.

The Ministry of Finance is organizing manual transportation, and if it cannot be sold, these taxes will be all over.

If there is no solution to the problem of unsalable food, we can use it to pay off our external debt. Whether they accept it or not, we only pay with food. "

In Kristanval's view, everyone can bear it. Now that the Tsar government is willing to admit its previous debts, this is very shameful, and still wants to pick and choose?

Foreign Minister Chris Basham shook his head again and again: "No, we managed to reach an agreement with other countries. If we do this, we will soon be in diplomatic dilemma.

According to prior agreement, countries have agreed that we use agricultural products to pay off debts in batches, and there is no need to make such extremes. "

Grain debt is the biggest achievement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, paying off all debts in a total of fifteen years. If all debts were repaid with food all at once, they would have solved the agricultural crisis, but the creditors could not stand it!

Grain that cannot be sold is worthless. Chris Basham doesn't want the foreign ministry's results to be ruined, it will also be a disaster for the Russian Empire.

If we reduce the production capacity, everyone didn't mention it. Austria's call to reduce production last year has turned into a joke.

In addition to Austria's own reductions in the area of ​​grain cultivation, the three countries of Russia and Russia only screamed and issued several laws.

During the implementation, everyone realized that it was not the case at all. It is impossible for the law to stipulate which land should be grown and which land cannot be grown.

Any statute that wants to be implemented is not made in one go. Even when the fallow farming law widely recognized by the society comes into effect, the officials below do not know which land has been fallowed and which land has not been fallowed.

No statistics have been made in advance, so what about implementation? In the face of reality, the tacit choices of officials everywhere are counted from now on.

If food is grown this year, then this land should fallow next year. Everyone's statistics are clear and clear, no one speaks.

As a result, the area of ​​grain cultivation in various countries has continued to increase this year, and the government is also powerless. Waiting for regulation to take effect can take years.

The role of market self-regulation may be more effective than government regulations. For several years of continuous loss of money, ordinary people may not reduce the area of ​​food cultivation, but the nobles will definitely reduce production.

Agriculture Minister Manilov interrupted: "The two disputes are meaningless, unless the agricultural crisis is fundamentally resolved, or the crisis that follows will only be more serious.

Even if the grain is forcibly thrown to the creditor, it can only cure the symptoms and not the root cause. The agricultural crisis cannot be overcome in a year or two.

According to data released by the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, if no measures are taken and the market is allowed to regulate itself, the agricultural winter may last for more than ten years.

Russia is a big agricultural country. If the agricultural crisis lasts for more than ten years, it is estimated that tens of millions of farmers will be bankrupted in the country, and it may even be 20 million or 30 million.

The industrialization process of the Empire developed rapidly, but it was not possible to accommodate so many bankrupt people in a short time.

The biggest problem we have now is not domestic slow-moving grain, but how to ensure that farmers do not go bankrupt on a large scale.

According to the current situation, the number of domestic bankrupt farmers this year will be several times that of last year. About 50,000 to 80,000 families will go bankrupt. The agricultural crisis continues, and this number will increase geometrically every year. "

He did n’t know what to say: If you ca n’t finish the food, you can fight!

It is not the time for the agricultural crisis to erupt. If it had happened a few years earlier, it would have coincided with the time of the Russian-Prussian War, and perhaps the results of the war would have been rewritten.

Gray animals are worthless. As long as they have food in hand, the Tsarist government can carry on the war. The Tsar who can feed the soldiers is already a good Tsar, and other problems can be overcome.

Don't look at the current Russian empire seems to be a small circle. If war breaks out, the war potential of the Russians is definitely far more than a few years ago.

This is the benefit of more grain. No matter how slow the grain is, as long as farmers do not go bankrupt, the problem is under control. To put it bluntly, everyone is full, and there is no artificial reaction.

The agricultural crisis is so serious that Russian farmers have not accused the Tsarist government. The prestige of Alexander II has not been damaged, which is the benefit of eating enough food.

After a moment of contemplation, Alexander II decided to yield to reality. "Dead friends don't die poor," others are better off than themselves.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Vienna government have conducted in-depth communication, and this time they will be pulled down at all costs."

After a failure, Alexander II's pride has diminished a lot, and he has converged a lot in acting.

This is a crisis, but also an opportunity. If done well, the Russian Empire can also use Austria's power to kill an enemy.

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