Chapter 563： British calculations

On May 20, 1874, the Tsarist government declared war on Poland. On the afternoon of the same day, the Russian army crossed the border and launched an attack on the Kingdom of Poland. The Russian-Polish war broke out again.

From the Russian-Polish conflict to less than a week before and after the outbreak of the war, this efficiency refreshed Franz's understanding of the Tsarist government.

The reform achievements of Alexander II have been manifested in terms of efficiency. According to the previous efficiency of the Tsarist government, there is no uncertainty in a few months.

The sudden Russian-Polish war killed many people. The European governments were too late to respond, and the war had already begun.

In London, the Prime Minister was only struggling. While busy with domestic elections, and concerned about the changing situation in Europe, even the Irish issue has been postponed.

"The War in the Near East is continuing, and the Russians have provoked another war with the Poles. Did they forget the lesson of the failure of the last multi-line battle so quickly, who can tell me what happened in the middle?

With extensive political experience, Prime Minister Gulston can be sure that the Russian-Polish war was definitely not caused by a conflict. In recent years, conflicts broke out in Russia and Poland that exceeded three digits. This time, war broke out.

Looking at the rapid actions of the Russians, it is clear that they have long been premeditated. The Near East War distracted Britain, and the London government directly believed that the Russians were preparing for the Ottoman Empire.

To this end, the British are still trying to find ways to keep the Ottoman Empire. Don't worry now, the Tsarist government provoked the Russian-Polish war, and no more energy was devoted to the Near East War.

Foreign Minister Macleans: "His Prime Minister, based on the information we have gathered, the Poles are in trouble this time.

The Berlin government was not active in sending troops to rescue the Kingdom of Poland. It did not send troops after the war broke out, and even military mobilization was very slow.

The Polish throne election is coming soon, and William I ’s approval rate is very high. Under normal circumstances, election is stable.

The biggest obstacle is the current Polish government. There are certain signs that the Polish government is prepared to intervene in the election by abnormal means and kick William I out.

It is not surprising that the Prussians were ambitious about Poland and used a knife to kill people and ousted the Polish government in advance.

From the current situation analysis, the two countries should have secretly reached a deal. The Vienna government has not acted yet, and what role they play in this, we are still unable to make an accurate judgment.

By the way, Prussian diplomats have been very active recently, and have frequent meetings with high-level European countries. Just three days ago, the Minister of Prussia and I in London also passed on the issue of Poland.

To counter the Russian threat, they wanted to form the Prussian-Polish Confederation and sought our support.

If nothing unexpected happens, the Prussians have also contacted France and Austria, but they do not know whether they have reached a deal. "

The explanation was justified by Prime Minister Gilston nodded. The Russian-Polish war broke out suddenly. If the two countries were not aware of it in advance, it would not make sense.

If there is a secret collusion between the two countries, then all explanations can be made. It is not surprising that the Prussians helped cover the Tsarist government and created conditions for the Russian army to attack Poland.

Unlike the governments of other countries, the Polish government is a hodgepodge in which almost every power has buried its nails.

The Kingdom of Prussia was the most powerful in Poland, and many people were bought by the Berlin government. Coupled with the Polish government's own death and the military's situation, it is too easy to intercept some information.

Prime Minister Gilston frowned: "If the Austrians are involved, it will be Puerol's fourth partition of Poland.

This is not a good phenomenon. Let them continue. I am afraid that in the end of the European continent, there will be few countries left.

If Austria did not participate, then what interests did the two countries bring out in exchange for the default of the Vienna government?

Similarly, the Berlin government promised the French how much good they did in exchange for the support of the Paris government, or the Prussians did not get their support.

These issues must be clarified. I don't think that without the understanding of France and Austria, the two countries will be able to privately divide the Kingdom of Poland.

Being able to buy the interests of France and Austria is definitely not small. Both Russia and Russia are poor ghosts, and their industrial and economic strengths are average. The promise should not be economic, so the answer is ready.

In any case, they cannot make their deal come true, otherwise the two countries will be completely enlarged. "

The British foreign policy has always followed the interests, and when analyzing problems, there are also a lot of interest factors.

With this set of analysis methods, many hidden questions are clear, and many things can be known by directly tracing the interests.

The great power strategy cannot be concealed at all, and countless eyes are staring? However, it is impossible for any country to have only one set of strategies, and there are also priorities in many strategies, and this order still changes with the changes in the international situation.

At present, European countries recognize that the most important strategy of the French is to digest the Italian region, and then to expand to Central Europe and seize the territory west of the Rhine.

The most important strategy of Austria is to unify the German region, mainly to unify the German Federal Empire with high popular support, and then to expand to the Ottoman Empire.

Because of the mutual restraint of European countries, the French's second strategy could not be implemented, and Austria's most important strategy could not be carried out.

But once France and Austria reach a compromise and the two countries will acquiesce in their actions, the situation will be completely different, and the remaining countries will not be able to oppose it.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Laluy Royd: "The situation is not so bad. If that is the case, France and Austria will have to fight each other.

Obviously, neither France nor Austria is ready for war. At least until they clear the field, I don't think they will break out.

Of course, in order to avoid this, I think it is necessary to strengthen the strength of the German Federal Empire.

If the Prussians want to annex Poland, let them give up the Rhineland. Anyway, for Prussia, it was an enclave, and it was also looked down upon by the French.

Rather than leave it to the French to increase their strength, it would be better to throw it to the German Federal Empire. At that time, the two countries could only restrain each other. "

This is a conspiracy. The current French empire is in full swing. As their neighbors are tragedy, the pressure on national defense has increased greatly.

The Rhineland region is just an enclave. With the enemy of the Russian Empire to the east, once the French decided to take action, the Kingdom of Prussia would simply be unable to resist.

Since it cannot be maintained, the status of the Rhineland region in the heart of the Berlin government has greatly declined. In exchange for the annexation of the Kingdom of Poland, it is estimated that many people will agree.

The British were also uneasy about giving the Rhineland region to the German Federal Empire. Once the Rhineland region merges into the German Federation, the two countries will only be able to restrain each other.

Even if the Vienna government wants to compromise and share the enlarged version of the German Federal Empire with the French, the German people will not agree!

Nationalism determined that once the French had an idea for the Rhineland region, Austria had to stand on the German Federal stand, and the Vienna government was afraid to make concessions.

Conversely, if Austria wanted to annex the German Federal Empire, the French could not agree. Let the power of Austria extend to the west of the Rhine. How can France's strategic security be guaranteed?

The purpose of the other party cannot be achieved unless one party falls. In this context, the British can play a balance between France and Austria.

Whether France and Austria will have an imbalance in power is a matter for the future. The London government's foreign policy has always been focused on the present, rather than chasing the illusory future.

No one can guarantee what will happen after decades and hundreds of years. Today is an ally. Tomorrow may be the enemy. The day after tomorrow may become an ally again. Preparing for diplomacy is simply a joke.

Prime Minister Gilston: "This issue is not urgent. We first leak the information to the German Federation. They must also pay for the Rhineland region.

After getting the Rhineland region, the strength of the German Federation has been greatly enhanced, and it is also the second largest power in Spain on the European continent.

We have to work hard to persuade the Prussians for them, but also to settle the French. They can't just pay nothing! "

In a short time, the Prime Minister of Galston made his judgment. The possibility of the Prussians abandoning the Rhineland region is very high, which means that they can escape the threat of the French.

As for the losses, the German Federal Empire can make up for it. The German Federal Empire is almost all the richest in Germany. Its finances are much stronger than the Berlin government, and selling a good price is not a big problem.

With this money, many problems are solved. In the next Russian-Prussian War, the Kingdom of Prussia will no longer have a chance to win.

As a client, Britain can also take a political interest from it and expand its influence in the German Federation.

...

What happened inside the London government was naturally unknown to everyone, and everyone was attracted by the war.

The Near East War and the Pope War broke out at the same time, and everyone was waiting for the reaction of the two countries. Many people are speculating whether continental Europe will trigger a full-scale war.

Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire can be regarded as allies, and they are short of a treaty on the issue of confronting the Russians.

Russia and Austria are also allies, and in theory the Tsarist government now has the opportunity to pull Austria into the water. Once a full-scale war breaks out between the two sides, Popo + Ottoman will definitely not be able to beat Russia + Austria, then they can only pull people into the water.

At this point, the fantasy should end. On May 23, 1874, the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated its position: the Vienna government was absolutely neutral in the Popo war.

At this time, everyone can rest assured that the so-called comprehensive continental war does not exist, and small countries need not worry about the issue of standing teams.

Ankara, the decision of the Vienna government disappointed Abdul Aziz I. He had expected the outbreak of the European War to share their military pressure.

No need to think about it now. European countries are not stupid. Who wants to fight without interest? The Vienna government's neutrality in the Russian-Polish war did not surprise everyone.

It is very difficult to carry out territorial expansion on the European continent, and the legal basis is the biggest problem. Austria has no legal basis for Poland, and its occupation of land is illegal at all.

This is not the same as expanding in the Balkans. Robbing land from the Ottoman Empire does not need to worry about legal issues or worry about being condemned by public opinion. The Government of Vienna has taken the title of "Liberator", not an aggressor.

Grabbing Poland is different. Although Da Bobo is not very popular, it is also a sovereign state that everyone recognizes. Grabbing the territory of the Kingdom of Poland is aggression.

Unable to seize territory, the Polish government was so drowsy that even military expenses could not be recovered when it started the war, and it was normal for Austria to have no interest in Poland.

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