Chapter 970： high risk

Insider trading on the stage and behind the scenes continues, and the casualty report of the European War is finally released. There is no doubt that both sides in the war suffered heavy losses, and the tragic war was the worst in history.

According to statistics from the Vienna government, the war directly caused the population of the European continent to drop by more than 12 million. Except for the more than four million immigrants who left, the rest were killed in war.

Statistical data:

Among them, 2.377 million soldiers of the Anti-French Alliance were killed and 1.92 million civilians died. The specific data are as follows:

Austria: 742,000 soldiers died and 28,000 civilians died; (including the colonial war)

German Federation: 582,000 soldiers died and 587,000 civilians died;

Belgium: 273,000 soldiers died and 556,000 civilians died;

Spain: 21,000 soldiers died in action; (civilian deaths are ignored)

Switzerland: 6,000 soldiers died in action; (civilian deaths are ignored)

Kingdom of Sardinia: 176,000 soldiers died and 465,000 civilians died; (including guerrillas and local rebels)

...

France: 3.206 million soldiers were killed in action, of which 1.368 million were killed in the colonial army, 417,000 were killed in Italian soldiers, 1.421 million were killed in local soldiers, and 886,000 were civilians. (Including civil war)

Looking at the cold data in his hands, Franz sighed. Except for the slightly shorter duration, the fierceness of the war did not weaken the original time and space.

Especially the number of civilian casualties is far more than the original time and space. In addition to the wide spread of the war zone, it was more importantly caused by the expulsion.

Even if the Vienna government took the first rescue operation, it failed to reduce the mortality rate much.

The old, weak, sick and disabled cannot withstand the toss. Many people who are not strong enough have fallen on the way to fleeing, and there is no time to receive help.

The statistics are only the number of civilian deaths in Europe. If we count the number of civilian deaths in the colonies, the final figure may double.

The death toll is so high, not to mention the casualties. Because the number of casualties can be accumulated and repeated statistics are prone to appear, it is impossible to be accurate anyway, and the Vienna government is too lazy to spend this time.

After a long time, Franz said with emotion: "From the current situation, France is basically a waste! If there are no accidents, they will not want to regain their vitality in 30 years."

No matter how you look at it, the current situation of the French is worse than the original time and space.

Although they suffered heavy losses in the First World War in the original time and space, France was a victorious country and won the war dividends, and neither the colony nor the mainland lost.

Now it's different. Not only did they suffer heavy losses, but they also lost all their net worth. The next thing to wait for them is a long debt-payment career.

Even if it wants to imitate Germany and rebirth, France does not have the capital for revival. Needless to say, the domestic collapsed economy, the more important thing is that they don't even have a rejuvenated population.

As the protagonist of the European War, France's population loss was not small. More than two million people died directly, and it is estimated that the number of disabled people will not be much lower than this. With the addition of immigrants leaving, this number is even greater.

Based on empirical estimation, Franz can conclude that there is a fault in the labor force in France, especially the sharp shortage of male labor force.

These problems cannot be solved. For a long time in the future, the population of France will fall into negative growth.

This point, just look at the Russian next door. It was originally the country with the largest birth rate in Europe, but after several wars, the birth rate dropped rapidly and even experienced a negative growth for a while.

Teddy bears can recover in just a few years. That is because the Russians are highly motivated to give birth, and the French people are not keen on creating people.

If the economy fails, it is estimated that the post-war birth rate in France will hit a record low.

The population growth rate of France after World War I is very informative, and it has increased by more than one million people in 20 years. After excluding the population growth caused by immigration, the population growth rate of France is directly negative.

In the era of Industry 2.0, if there is a shortage of labor, don't think about anything. Austria's ability to become the world's number one economic power depends on a population far surpassing its competitors.

If Austria, like France, had fallen into a population bottleneck in the nineteenth century, no matter how hard Franz worked, he would not be able to create a great empire.

"The French still have some family background, as long as this war is over, they will continue to maintain it.

The worst is now Belgium and the newly independent Italian states, their economies completely collapsed in the war, and a complete mess.

If it were not for our support, they would have been hungry. It is no less difficult to restore the economy than to wage another European War. "

It can be seen that Prime Minister Karl is having a very headache now. When fighting a war, naturally there are more allies, and swarming is definitely cheaper than fighting alone.

When the war is over, the situation is completely different. Anyway, everyone squatted in a trench. We carried guns together and bleed together. The little brother can't go down and ask for help, it's really impossible not to pull.

It's okay to pull it, the key is that it can't be pulled up. The trauma left by the war is too great. Whether it is Belgium or the Italian states, they are all poor and white.

When will you be self-sufficient? No one can answer this question. Anyway, I haven't worked for a few years, so I don't want to be relieved.

As the greatest victor of the war, the outside world only saw the beauty of Austria, and no one knew that the Vienna government was ashamed of it.

Although the war is over, the debt of the Austrian government is still rising sharply. Money is needed for domestic aftermath work, money is needed to rebuild the Rhineland region, money is still needed to reunify the German region, and money is still needed to support the younger brother.

Had it not been for the title of “hegemony”, the capital market’s confidence in the Austrian government had increased to an unprecedented level, and the Vienna government was not far from the financial crisis.

Franz rubbed his forehead: "You can't give money directly. The war is over and they must learn to be independent. After the Vienna Peace Conference is over, they will have a showdown.

If you want to get funding, you follow the market rules. We can issue bonds to them or issue bonds for them, but the interest rate is determined by the market. "

In fact, the assistance provided by Austria has never been unpaid. But compared with the capital market, the funds provided by the Vienna government are the highest conscience of capital.

"Interest-free loans", and there are still no strings attached, there is no such conscientious creditor in the world.

However, this "conscience" is time-limited. In order to attack the French during the war, the Vienna government was naturally full of "conscience." Now that the war is over, the "conscience" has also been consumed.

Frankly speaking, if it weren't for printing too many tickets before, and worrying about the repayment ability of countries, it would be fine to continue to issue interest-free loans.

After all, all the loans are Aegis, not gold. Now that the Aegis is taken, the post-war reconstruction of all countries cannot do without Austria.

Through trade, most of the money will be returned back to promote Austria’s economic development, and the Vienna government is not at a loss.

Regrettably, during the war, the Vienna government had already activated the money printing machine, and now there is a surplus of Aegis on the market.

It is obviously out of place to play like this again. In case of any problems in any link, inflation is a matter of minutes.

In order to stabilize prices and the currency value of the Aegis, the Vienna government had to find ways to recover excess banknotes on the market, such as issuing bonds.

In this context, the debt of the Vienna government is naturally increasing day by day. However, compared with the currency hegemony of Aegis, this price is not worth mentioning.

After all, there is still a competitor-the "pound sterling", which is far from the time to act recklessly.

The Minister of Economy Reinhardt reminded: "Your Majesty, the current intelligence is very special. Because of the war, the outside world is skeptical about the repayment ability of the governments of Belgium and Italy.

In addition, the incidents of French debt default and German federal debt default that just broke out have stimulated the capital market, and the market as a whole is now in a cautious state.

Unless we provide them with credit guarantees, otherwise they will not be able to obtain financing in the capital market.

The risks involved are very large. According to the analysis of the data we have collected, the probability of defaulting on debts of Belgium and Italy is as high as 90%. "

It is well prepared, knowing that this is a high-risk business. But after hearing the "90% probability of default", Franz was still taken aback.

There is no such thing as gambling, no wonder no one cares about it in the capital market.

Austria provides guarantees, and the probability of default is as high as 90%; if it is replaced by an ordinary financial institution, the probability of default is not 100%.

After a little hesitation, Franz still decided to take the risk. After all, they are all allies, and the Vienna government cannot watch them die!

If these little brothers are finished, and then support them again, who can guarantee that the new government will continue to implement the pro-Olympic policy. In the unlikely event that the British were fooled away, Austria’s loss would be great.