Chapter 991： Promote Aegis

Everyone knows the benefits of currency hegemony, but few countries are eligible to participate in the competition. As an international trade settlement currency, at least the following basic conditions must be met:

1. The economy of the currency issuing country must be large enough;

2. The import and export trade volume of the currency issuing country must be large enough;

3. The currency exchange rate is stable;

4. The ability of the currency issuing state to guarantee currency redemption;

5. If the currency issuing country itself is the world police.

In modern times, the British were the first to meet these basic conditions, so the pound became the earliest international currency.

Only limited by communications and the degree of economic globalization is not high, the promotion of the British pound is not smooth, and everyone is still more keen to use gold and silver in international settlement.

With the continuous increase in the volume of international trade, pure gold and silver settlement has become outdated, and the pound has only stepped onto the stage of history and became the earliest international currency.

Unfortunately, at this time, Britain's economic hegemony is no longer stable. In the process of establishing currency hegemony, it has been challenged by the franc and the Aegis.

Once the opportunity is lost, there is no more. Over time, Britain gradually lost its advantages in industry and economic volume, and the pound's dream of hegemony ended.

Especially after the end of the European War, the Holy Roman Empire was reunified again, and Aegis’s strong position on the European continent was established, becoming the most favorable contender for currency hegemony.

Advantages belong to advantages. Before the dust settles, no one can guarantee that accidents will happen again. Franz clearly remembers that there is still a chosen country, and he is working hard at the moment.

There is no way, the natural conditions of the Americans are too superior. Basically all resources can be self-sufficient, even if it is divided into three, it still has the potential to become a top power.

Both the United States and the Confederacy have far surpassed Britain, France and the West in development potential. In particular, the United States has even more development potential than Russia.

The current defect is nothing more than the dual lack of population, quality and quantity, which has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the two countries.

Although Franz made preparations in advance, and while the Americans did not react, he sent an untimed bomb over, but whether this thing will explode or when it will explode is unknown.

Franz doesn't want to pin his hopes on the unknown. Instead of waiting for the challenger to develop, it is better to use the existing advantages to determine the general trend in advance.

Once monetary hegemony is established, it is not so simple to overthrow it. Later generations of old Americans have tried to die, and the countries are miserable, and the hegemony of the dollar has not been shaken.

The reason is very simple, it is the siphon effect. Currency hegemony gathers funds from all over the world. With money, science and technology develop faster and the military hegemony is also consolidated.

Step by step, step by step. Once the status of the overlord is established, it is like the leader of the Internet industry.

Once the currency hegemony of the Aegis is established, at that time "only the Holy Roman Empire can play the Holy Roman Empire."

The Minister of Economic Affairs Reinhardt analyzed: "Your Majesty, if you want Aegis to become an international settlement currency, then our economic model must also change.

To become an international settlement currency, the biggest problem facing Aegis is exporting. With the continuous increase in the volume of international trade, simply issuing international loans can no longer meet demand.

In order to reduce capital loss in the early years, we adopted a foreign trade balance model. In the past 40 years, most of our time has been trade surplus.

It's not that this surplus is not good. In fact, in the past years, we have built up a wealth of money by relying on foreign trade surpluses to develop.

But to defeat the pound sterling and let Aegis become the mainstream currency in international settlements, this seems out of place.

In terms of currency output, the British are the best learners. The current export method of the pound mainly relies on the British trade deficit model.

If we want to transition to the trade deficit model, we must make a trade-off, reducing the volume of merchandise exports or increasing the volume of merchandise imports.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs believes that some unimportant low-tech industries can be given up to other countries, while we focus on developing high-tech industries. "

The issue of Aegis’ output has been discussed by the Vienna government many times. In order to better promote Aegis, the Vienna government continued to issue international loans to countries around the world as early as 20 years ago.

Without the background of exporting Aegis, no matter what the political needs, it would be impossible for a low-quality client like the tsarist government to borrow so much money from the empire.

Perseveringly, the speed of borrowing is fast, and the speed of capital returning is just as fast. As the world's largest industrial power, all industrial and commercial products can be found here. Most of the debtors, after receiving the money, haven't warmed up, so they spend it again.

Needless to say, in this context, even if the Vienna government only wants a trade balance, the final result will still be a trade surplus.

The result of the surplus was the influx of large amounts of capital, which, while promoting the economic development of the empire, also hindered the development of international trade.

To put it simply, there is a large outflow of gold and silver, and trading partners have become poorer and have no money to buy more goods.

Knowing that you know that you want to change the economic model is not an easy task. A bad operation will bring massive losses.

Now Franz somewhat understands why later generations of Americans want to play to industrialize. Isn't the industry that is highly dependent on labor, polluting, and low in technology the object of abandonment?

When it was almost time to give up, people of insight suddenly discovered that the country was hollow. However, this time is already too late.

Competitors have developed by relying on cheap labor. If they want to re-industrialization, they can only accelerate artificial intelligence research and rely on robots to compete with cheap labor.

What the final result will be, Franz doesn't know, anyway, before he crosses, artificial intelligence has not replaced artificial.

"What industries is the Ministry of Economic Affairs going to give up?"

It is inevitable to give up some industries, and Franz is not an idealist. How can it be possible to enjoy the dividends brought by currency hegemony, but do not want to bear the sequelae caused by hegemony?

It's just that the specific industry to be abandoned remains to be studied.

Minister of Economic Affairs Reinhardt: "The industries that the Ministry of Economic Affairs intends to abandon are mainly low-end manufacturing and non-renewable resource extraction.

Mainly include: rare resource mining industry, textile industry, printing and dyeing industry, low-end clothing and footwear production...

Taking into account the needs of domestic economic development and employment, it is obviously unrealistic to directly shut down these industries. In the short term, we will take measures to strictly approve the registration of new mining and low-end industrial enterprises.

At the same time, import tariffs on products in related fields will be reduced, and these backward production capacities will be gradually eliminated through time and market competition.

If the plan goes well, in about five years, we will enter an era of trade deficit. "

There is no core industry in the industry that is about to abandon, Franz breathed a sigh of relief. It seems that the Ministry of Economic Affairs is still qualified and knows what the foundation of the country is.

If someone at the top of the government really proposes to abandon the core industry, then Franz will have to consider whether to overturn the table and change the way of fighting for currency hegemony.

After all, the leaders of this generation are carefully selected by him, and they are so short-sighted, let alone the future successor.

The future generations of Americans will hollow out their industries because of the rapid development of artificial intelligence, which can be picked up again at a certain point in the future.

Because of a mistake in judgment, the expected technological breakthrough did not happen, and people regret it.

If you play like this in the 19th century, you can refer to the French in the original time and space. They did not get the currency hegemony and turned themselves from an industrial empire to a usury empire.

With lessons learned, Franz naturally did not dare to take it lightly.

In the same fight for currency hegemony, the Vienna government has two choices. The most profitable one is naturally his own personal battle; second, Franz can also push the European Union out to seize currency hegemony.

In a sense, the latter has a greater probability of success. This year, the strength of the European Union has been assembled, not to mention the British, even the whole world is not enough to see.

The only problem is that the investment rate of the Holy Roman Empire is not high, and it may only get a little more now.

After contemplating for a while, Franz shook his head: "The risks brought by the economic model change are very high. We are different from the British. We can learn from it, but follow suit.

For the sake of safety, what we can do in the short term is to reduce mining, regardless of the mines that have been developed, and the mines that have not been developed must be strictly reviewed.

Which minerals must be developed, which minerals can be reduced, and which minerals can not be developed temporarily, the government must have a bottom line. We must not blindly come in and affect the domestic economic development.

It is best to introduce relevant natural resources laws to prohibit the export of mineral raw materials in legal form. Including coal and petroleum, these energy sources can also be temporarily included in the resource control list, and export is strictly examined and approved.

Strictly review the low-end manufacturing industry and reduce capital inflows. The rest is left to the market to make choices. There is no need to specifically reduce tariffs. It is too deliberate but not beautiful.

In the short term, the government's focus can be on pollution remediation, especially in the core areas of the country, and heavily polluted enterprises in the upper reaches of lakes or rivers must be moved or shut down. "

It is unrealistic to comprehensively control pollution. Not only does it lack the technology, but the Vienna government does not have that much money.

However, with a certain degree of fine-tuning, relocating or closing some heavily polluting enterprises, Franz is still confident.

Anyway, in order to promote the Aegis, the Holy Roman Empire will gradually enter an era of trade deficits, taking the opportunity to eliminate some of the heavily polluting industries.

In order to promote the Aegis, Franz also worked hard. Even their own petroleum industry can be included in the resource control list.

Of course, this is also the limitation of the times. The demand for oil in the international market is not high, and the "oil-Aegis system" is even more invisible.

Moreover, restricting oil exports is not a benefit. On the surface, the money is less profitable, but in essence it has hit competitors.

As an important oil exporting country, once the Holy Roman Empire reduces crude oil exports, international oil prices will inevitably rise.

Affected by this, the promotion and use of internal combustion engines will inevitably be affected. Now is the critical period of the second industrial revolution. Once it is missed, it will be difficult to catch up.

If you kill two birds with one stone, Franz doesn't mind sacrificing a small amount of money temporarily. Anyway, the oil is buried in the ground and can't run away.