Chapter 827： Do you want to buy theater chains? (1)

"In addition, Lionsgate’s IP series "The Hunger Games 3" is divided into two parts. The upper part has been released at the end of last year. After the release, the global box office has exceeded 700 million US dollars. The lower part will be released at the same time at the end of the year. However, the polarization of word-of-mouth is serious, and whether the final outcome can reach the expected box office is still unknown.

After the end of the series, we deliberately developed a side story, imitating Marvel, and taking out one of the characters to make a movie. If successful, it will become a new gold mine. "

Yang Cheng nodded and did not answer. This was all planned before he bought Lionsgate, and it has nothing to do with him. His predecessors planted trees and descended from the shadows. He is enjoying the dividends of purchasing Lionsgate.

" "Now You See Me 2" has been preparing for the establishment of a team. The crew members went to London for filming, and then moved to Z Macau, mainly because of the Chinese retro architecture there.

The plot setting of the second part is more tense than the first part, and the use of special effects is more cool, and in order to compete for the market in the Greater China region, we have joined the very influential Asian superstar Jaychou, who also likes magic very much. , With a certain degree of performance experience, without affecting the main line of the story, the advantages of his participation outweigh the disadvantages. "

Yang Cheng blinked, jaychou? Isn't it Zhou Jielun? By the way, I heard the news that he would enter Hollywood again in his previous life, but Yang Cheng hadn't watched "Now You See Me 2", and I don't know how Xiao Tianwang performed.

Yes, he nodded noncommitantly, "The box office in Country Z is becoming more and more swelling. It is reasonable to make a certain compromise with the local box office. I have no opinion."

In fact, it doesn’t matter if Yang Cheng has any opinions. Donna Lande is just making a brief report with him. The crew has already started filming. If you want to change it, you can’t change it. Liquidated damages are a trivial matter, and bad news is not beautiful. Yes, I still hope to make a fortune.

Of course, these little things Donna Lande are fully qualified to call the shots. Yang Cheng will not feel that his status is being provoked. Originally, he was also a shopkeeper. As long as the data shown in the financial report is good, it proves that Donna's work is okay, and he will not bother to raise questions. It’s really not Yang Cheng’s style of doing things.

"Finally, on the issue of cinema chains, I discussed with my colleagues in the company for a long time, mainly focusing on the current cinema giant Emperor Entertainment and the current market share of the Latin American cinema giant Cinemark's share price performance and valuation. the study.

These two theaters both outperformed the S&P 500 index, and both performed well. Although Cinemark was listed later than Emperor Entertainment, Cinemar’s stock price came from behind and outperformed Emperor Entertainment’s stock price. We cannot ignore this point. After all, in essence We still want to make money. "

Regarding Donna Rand’s proposition, Yang Cheng agreed with 200%. Making money is the root, but he didn’t answer the conversation. He quietly listened to Donna Rand’s words, “Up to now, Cinemark has 330 theaters in North America. The number reached 4,544, these two figures just reached half of AMC; In addition, in Latin America, Cinemark also has 131 theaters with a total of 1,125 screens;

It is estimated that by 2017, the total number of movie theaters will increase to 530, and the number of screens will increase to about 6000. During the ten years from 2007 to 2017, Cinemark's annual number of screens has maintained a low growth rate of about 2%.

In contrast, Emperor Entertainment also maintains a certain scale of terminal expansion every year. The number of screens has increased from 5,663 in 2002 to 7,300 expected in 2017. Emperor Entertainment’s strategy is to ensure future market share and overall operational efficiency. In addition to maintaining a certain scale of external expansion every year, and closing down poorly managed movie theaters, the screen growth rate is more volatile.

And Cinemark has maintained a steady increase in single-screen output while the terminal is expanding, and its operating efficiency is higher than that of Emperor Entertainment.

Cinemark’s single-screen output has been increasing year by year. According to the statistics we have collected, it has grown from US$233,100 in 2007 to US$280,000 now, and is expected to reach the threshold of US$300,000 by 2017.

Emperor Entertainment is volatile. Since 2011, Cinemark's single-screen output level has gradually been higher than Regal.

The reason for the continuous increase in Cinemark’s single-screen output is the steady growth of average ticket prices and movie-going visits. Cinemark movie-going visits have risen from 166 million in 2005 to 250 million now, and it is expected to reach 270 million by 2017. The average ticket price From US$3.87 in 2005 to US$6.2 now.

The average ticket price of Emperor Entertainment has always been higher than that of Cinemark, and the average ticket price has remained within 7-8.58 US dollars. However, since 2003, when the number of movie viewers reached a high of 266 million, it has begun to decline. Now Emperor Entertainment is watching movies. The number has fallen to 200 million, and there is a danger of falling below at any time.

In addition to box office revenue, theaters also have franchise revenues such as food and beverages. In recent years, the proportion of box office revenue in total revenue has decreased year by year. In 2013, Cinemark's box office share ratio fell from 65.62% in 2010 to 63.59%, while franchising The proportion of operating income increased from 30% to 31.45%.

Emperor Entertainment’s box office revenue accounted for 67.8% of total revenue from 68.9% two years ago, franchise revenue was US$817 million, and gross profit margin was as high as 86.3%.

The gap between the two sides keeps narrowing. "

Speaking of this, Donna Land took a breather, picked up the coffee on the table and took a sip. Yang Cheng interrupted when she saw this, "Actually, I have been hesitating whether we should buy a cinema chain or even one. The third largest cinema chain in terms of market share.

While you were talking, I checked the stock price of cinemark. According to the current US stock price of about US$27, the total market value is more than US$3 billion, and its shareholder composition is also the top Wall Street investment bank including FMR-LLC (Fidelity Fund Parent Companies-Fidelity Management Research Corporation), Blackstone Group, Pioneer Fund, etc. Of course, in my experience, as long as a sufficient premium is given, these vampires will never hold a movie stock But the extent of the premium is not what we can predict, it is definitely not small.

For the time being, at a high premium of 50%, is it worth spending close to 5 billion US dollars to acquire a theater? "

Donna Lande nodded in agreement, "In fact, this is what I'm about to say. In the United States and even in North America, the theater industry has entered a mature stage. The US film industry is weak, not only the number of movie viewers of Emperor Entertainment continues to decline. , The industry as a whole has experienced different degrees of decline, but there is an exception here, that is Cinemark, they have always maintained a continuous increase in the number of movie viewers, I think it is worth a premium of 500 million US dollars for this.

Of course, I also did an analysis. The main reason behind it is the difference in theater layout. Emperor Entertainment’s screens are mainly built in the United States and have not expanded internationally. Cinemark actively expands overseas and conducts business promotion. It is 1000 in Latin America. Most of the multiple screens are located in Brazil, Argentina and other countries, and have become the largest theater chains in Brazil and Argentina.

Cinemark believes that the layout of urban suburbs and unsophisticated areas such as South America will help reduce the level of competition, give priority to seizing the immature market, and then increase the market dividend by increasing the number of movie viewers and obtain a more stable return on investment.

I think this strategy is feasible. The global economy is growing steadily, and the urban population has reached saturation. Many first- and second-tier cities have begun to expand to the surrounding suburbs. Cinemark is the first to occupy this market and will definitely get greater returns in the future. , And if we can acquire Cinemark now and provide certain financial support, the future dividend will belong to us. "

Yang Cheng frowned, "But the downturn in Hollywood last year is an indisputable fact~"

He said that 2014 was a downturn in Hollywood and recognized by industry peers. Last year, everyone had a hard time. Although the average ticket price of American movies increased from US$7.96 in 2013 to US$8.12 now, the total box office declined. To 10.3 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, the first negative growth since 2011. Everyone once again experienced the cold winter wind.

Donna Lande said confidently, “Last year’s downturn was due to various reasons, but this downturn did not last long. Blockbuster movies such as "Avengers 2", "Pirates of the Caribbean 5", "Star Wars 7," and "World of Warcraft" In this year of gathering, the total US box office revenue is expected to reach a record US$11.5 billion. This is a figure jointly given by experts from several major giants. I think the final result will not be too far from what we expected.

And, boss, you also know that pure box office revenue only accounts for a part of the theater’s total revenue, not all. "

Yang Cheng understands what Donna means. Movies have a "window period". Different countries are hesitant to differ in policies, markets, and cultures. The length and essence of the "window period" are also slightly different, but to put it bluntly, movies are in different media. The time on the play.

Generally speaking, the movie will be the first to be screened in the cinema for the first time. This stage is collectively called the "theatre window period";

And about 3 to 6 months later, the movie theater ends the screenings, and DVD video discs are released at this time, and they enter the so-called "video serial port";

In another month or two movies can enter the movie channels and pay-on-demand channels of various TV stations;

Until two years after the movie was released, the free public television network could broadcast it to the public for free.

Due to the diversification of the screening window of a movie, the box office income of the theater in the window period is only about 30%-40% of the total revenue of a movie, and the rest comes from the income and the income from the non-theatre window period. Movie peripheral income.

In China, the income of a movie mainly comes from the box office income during the theater window period, which probably accounts for more than 80%.

Therefore, the market value of many domestic theater chains has soared to tens of billions, and they can even determine the life or death of a movie in one word, and instantly destroy an entertainment company, all because of the right to speak for the benefit of the movie company.

In the United States, the Big Six and even many mid-sized Hollywood film production companies are the leaders of the entire film market. Sometimes the theaters also need to look at the faces of the Big Six.

Of course, at the very beginning, the theaters were able to pee and **** on the film company's investment, but later, after several revolutions, the roles of the two parties came to a switch, the film company shoots a movie, your theater You don’t have to let me go on the line, but your theater line must be dead because it completely cut off revenue, but the film company will not. They have other channels to recover the investment cost.

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