Chapter 333： Bao Yugang's advice

Soon, the dishes were ready, and Xia Yu brought Li Qian to the table under Bao Yugang's greeting.

During the banquet, Bao Yugang's family was very enthusiastic. Xia Yu ate a sumptuous dinner with a smile on his face. He didn't talk about superfluous things in the middle, that is, simply chatted about homework. Xia Yu knew that Bao Yugang was planning to talk to him after the meal. He was so happy about things.

After eating and drinking, the nanny removed the food, and a group of people came to the living room to drink tea.

Bao Peirong found a reason and called Li Qian to her room to chat. In a blink of an eye, only Xia Yu and Bao Yugang were left in the living room.

After Wu Guangzheng filled Xia Yu's teacup, Bao Yugang took a sip of tea and put down the teacup, and sighed for a long time. Xia Yu realized that it was time to say business, so he leaned forward slightly and made a listening posture.

Bao Yugang smiled and said, "Xia Sheng, I'm here to invite you this time to ask you for advice. Please feel free to let me know!"

"Bao Sheng is polite, please say, I must know everything I can answer, and I can say nothing!"

Xia Yu said with a smile on his face.

"Haha, Xia Sheng is magnificent, then I will ask cheeky."

Bao Yugang smiled heartily, then smiled slightly and asked: "Xia Sheng, I read every issue of your "Jiuding Daily". The articles and news on it are of very high quality. I can't find a better newspaper in Xiangjiang. ."

"Thank you!"

Bao Yugang first flattered Xia Yu as a foreshadowing, Xia Yu smiled and said thank you.

"The analysis on the Hong Kong shipping market written in the newspaper today is very incisive and detailed. After reading it, I have made a lot of profits, but I have some questions in my heart. You also know that the situation in the world shipping market in recent years has been really bad, you How do you judge that shipping will rise?"

Bao Yugang said slowly, then looked at Xia Yu with scorching eyes.

In fact, this is a euphemism. In fact, after reading this article, Bao Yugang thought about it all day, which conflicted with his point of view!

He judged that in the next few years, even more than ten years, the shipping market will be in a downturn and the global shipping market will enter a period of depression, but the view of Jiuding Daily is exactly the opposite of his judgment.

Although Bao Yugang believes in his own judgment, judging from the quality of the "Jiuding Daily", the article cannot be without a target. Therefore, Bao Yugang wants to know the deep reasons and see if he has overlooked something.

Not only Bao Yugang, but Wu Guangzheng also raised his ears, wanting to know Xia Yu's views and opinions, after all, this is too important!

"Bao Sheng, I'm just going to make a mistake, and talk about my humble opinion, please don't take it off if you don't say it well!"

Xia Yu said modestly.

"Xia Sheng doesn't have to be humble, please!"

Bao Yugang said with a smile, then made a please gesture, and then made a listening gesture.

"Actually, this article is right or wrong!"

Xia Yu pondered for a moment, then slowly said, Bao Yugang and Wu Guangzheng frowned.

Without waiting for them to inquire, Xia Yu continued: "You should be very clear, Baosheng, that the shipping industry has cycles. Throughout the past hundreds of years, the cycle of prosperity and crisis of the shipping industry has basically occurred once every 10 years, repeating itself. And follow a very similar trajectory."

Bao Yugang nodded in agreement. He knew this deeply. He had experienced it once before, and he has never remembered it!

After World War II to the mid to late 1960s, the global shipping market's boom and recession cycles were relatively short, and the entire shipping market was in a low and turbulent consolidation phase. Until 1967, when the Arab-Israeli war broke out and Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula, the Suez Canal became a forward position. The canal was closed for 8 years. Ships detouring the Suez Canal had to travel far to the Cape of Good Hope, which greatly stimulated Shipping business.

In addition, in the late 1960s, world industrial trade was also in a period of prosperity. The volume of global maritime trade increased by leaps and bounds during this period, from 1.81 billion tons in 1966 to 3.23 billion tons in 1973, an increase of 78%. The global demand for ships is greater than the total demand in the past 20 years after World War II. Despite the rapid expansion of shipbuilding volume, the supply of capacity still exceeds demand, and the market is "difficult to find one ship." In an instant, the shipping industry became the most promising and profitable industry at the time, and banks have joined the shipping industry. Therefore, the late 1960s was also known as the golden age of the development of the global shipping market, but hidden dangers were buried. From 1970 to 1971, a second-hand ship was about 26 million US dollars, but by 1972 it rose to 61 million-73.5 million US dollars. It almost tripled.

But in the summer of 1973, when the Fourth Middle East War broke out, the Arab member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to impose an oil embargo on Israel and related countries, and greatly increased the price of crude oil, which caused the price of crude oil to more than double, which eventually triggered the global Sexual economic crisis.

The decrease in demand for oil imports caused a heavy blow to oil transportation, one of the important components of shipping. Freight rates collapsed instantly. In December, the freight rate plummeted to around 80S, a drop of nearly 75%. In addition, rising oil prices intensified the global economic recession, which affected every corner of the shipping industry, including the dry bulk and container shipping markets, as well as the newbuilding and second-hand ship markets.

After that, the shipping market entered a long period of recession and malaise. Although there was a short-term recovery and recovery during this period, the trend of recession has not been substantially eased. Freight is basically under the transportation cost. The tanker has been idle for more than 10 million DT, and the volume and price of second-hand ship transactions have also fallen. For example, the 200,000-ton class tanker built in 1970 was about 52 million US dollars in 1973, but fell by 1977 To 5 million US dollars, the decline was as high as 90% in less than 4 years.

It can be said that the past few years have been very difficult, and Bao Yugang has also relied on his size advantage to reduce costs and survive and develop in this difficult environment.

This cold winter allowed Bao Yugang to clearly recognize the situation of the world shipping market, and he was pessimistic about the future of shipping. He already had plans to go ashore.

However, in this situation, the "Jiuding Daily" clearly stated that the winter of the shipping market has passed and spring is coming. How can this not make Bao Yugang feel shocked?

"Bao Sheng, there are too many idle ships on the market now, whether it is a new ship or a second-hand ship, they are all waiting for someone to take over. In this case, it is difficult to raise the freight rate."

"But Baosheng, you run all over the world all year round, especially passing through the Middle East. I don't know how you feel about it?"

Xia Yu asked suddenly.

As soon as Bao Yugang's eyes were fixed, he immediately understood Xia Yu's potential meaning, and instead said, "You mean the Middle East is unstable?"

"You should know better than me for this Baosheng. Now it is the US-Soviet hegemony. The Middle East is an important point of struggle, and it is also a bottomless quagmire. There are a pile of restless masters, and Israel is a shit. The stick is stirring the wind and the rain; Iraq is also ambitious. Other countries such as Iran and Arabia are not the masters of keeping their own feet. They have their own minds. However, this place is still the world's oil heart, with intertwined interests. "

"After World War II until now, have there been few wars in the Middle East? In case the Middle East fights againThe consequences can be imagined!"

Xia Yu said slowly.

"If this happens, wouldn't the shipping market be even more miserable? How could it look up?"

Wu Guangzheng looked at Xia Yu inexplicably and asked.

Xia Yu did not say, but looked at Bao Yugang. Bao Yugang frowned for a while and said slowly: "No, it will rise. The Middle East is a dozen and the oil price rises. Tanker business is definitely not easy to do, but the world Factories everywhere can’t stop. If they can’t burn oil, they can burn more affordable coal. Then the business of coal ships will be very good.”

"But it is more difficult to transport coal than oil, and the port will definitely be congested. With dry bulk cargo, it is very likely to rise!"

"It's just that this good scene will never last, and it will prosper for a few years at most!"

Bao Yugang shook his head and said affirmatively. He didn't say one more thing, that is, this can only be achieved under the premise that it happens. If the Middle East is not chaotic, even if it is a few years of prosperity, don't think about it.

"Yes, that's why I said it was right or wrong. It will prosper, but it will prosper part of the market other than tankers, and it will not be prosperous for many years."

"It's just that I don't have to let someone write it out. You should understand why, Baosheng."

Xia Yu said calmly.

Bao Yugang nodded to express understanding.

Xia Yu wanted to use public opinion to influence the share price of Jardine Air Cargo Station. Naturally, he had to be as unfavorable as possible for air freight. Therefore, he could only talk about the good news about shipping, not the bad news.

"Hey!"

After Wu Guangzheng figured it out, he couldn't help sighing. Bao Yu just glanced at him and didn't say anything about him, because Bao Yugang knew why his son-in-law sighed.

"Bao Sheng, take the liberty to ask, do you want to go ashore?"

Xia Yu hesitated for a while before asking.

As soon as Xia Yu said this, Bao Yugang pondered for a while, nodded slowly and said, "Yes, I have this idea."