Chapter 515： Gold, black gold and U.S. dollars

Liu Tianci is an outstanding financial talent. He has worked for HSBC for so long and is no stranger to the specific operation of the bank. Therefore, when managing Jiuding Bank, he will naturally not ignore the important influencing factor of international gold prices.

Beginning in 1974, the international gold price began to rise. By October 1977, the price of gold had risen from US$130 per ounce to US$180.

Then from October 1977, the Federal Reserve began to operate the US dollar periodically and launched a super-loose monetary policy. The US dollar began to depreciate, and it continued to stabilize until October 1978, while the international gold price also rose to the current US$244. the height of.

And the "three golds", namely gold, black gold (oil) and the US dollar, have complex connections.

In the early 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the world currency system built after World War II, the price of gold and oil both deviated from the fixed exchange ratio with the US dollar, and the price surged sharply. The three are closely related and have mutual checks and balances. Relative stability is hidden in each other's fluctuations, and absolute changes are also present in surface stability.

When the U.S. dollar depreciates, capital will choose hard currency gold as a safe haven, global capital will flood into the gold market, and international gold prices will rise.

So relatively speaking, Jiuding Bank's investment in gold can indeed preserve the value of assets and even make profits.

However, Liu Tianci has analyzed that the Fed’s cyclical depreciation of the US dollar has been going on for a year, and it will be stable for a relatively long period of time. Now when investing in gold, assets are not rising as fast as they are now.

But now the chairman Xia Yu pointed out that the international gold price was going to rise and went to speculate in London gold futures. Liu Tianci believed that his ability and intelligence were not as good as Xia Yu, so there must be some important news that he didn't know.

This is worthy of alert!

"Chairman, will the price of gold increase in the future? What is the reason?"

Liu Tianci asked, his expression was very serious, and there was a hint of anxiety in his heart.

He hoped that the problem was in intelligence, not in his ability, otherwise it would definitely cause a major blow to him.

A light flashed in Xia Yu's eyes and solemnly said: "Iran's strike movement is about to change qualitatively now. I predict it will evolve into a revolution. At that time, Iran's oil exports are likely to stop!"

"how is this possible?"

Liu Tianci was horrified, his eyes widened, and he blurted out, unbelievable.

But looking at the serious expression of Chairman Xia Yu, he had to take a deep breath to calm himself down.

Since Xia Yu said so, relying on his international vision and the news gathering and exploratory ability of Jiuding News Agency, Liu Tianci had to believe in this possibility.

He also knows that there is an internal struggle in Iran. Since January this year, there have been large-scale demonstrations against the monarchy, and large-scale strikes have occurred since August.

But until the beginning of December now, he didn't understand how much has changed, so naturally he did not expect a revolution in Iran, one of the rich and powerful countries in the Middle East.

But if a revolution really breaks out in Iran, it will definitely have a huge world impact.

Just because Iran is so special!

In the industrial age, oil is the blood of industry. Iran is located in the heart of the world in the Middle East. Iran itself is the second largest oil exporter in the world. If a revolution really breaks out, it will even stop oil as stated by Chairman Xia Yu. The phenomenon of export, then developed countries in Europe and the United States can not escape.

The reduction in international crude oil and the absolute surge in oil prices will cause a series of evil consequences!

Among other things, the United States, the world's largest economy, has long relied on the two pillars of crude oil and the US dollar.

Now that the US domestic fiscal deficit crisis has emerged, inflation has become prominent, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, if crude oil rises again, it will definitely lead to a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar and increase the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate, and domestic inflation in the US will become more serious.

Now that the US dollar has been depreciating for a year, the Fed has finally stopped the cycle to contain it. This is not bad, after all, it is artificially manipulated.

However, if the international crude oil price suddenly soars, this sudden and uncontrollable factor will cause the Fed’s deployment to be disrupted. Capital is forced by the pressure of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the U.S. dollars held by it will be thrown out, and capital will quickly seek out the gold market Asylum protection.

Therefore, the international gold price will definitely start a new round of skyrocketing. From January 1977 to October 1978, the international gold price rose by more than 60 US dollars per ounce in a year. This time it will only be high but not low!

This is definitely a huge crisis!

Of course, if the news is known in advance, and with preparation, the crisis will turn into a huge opportunity, and you can eat the most delicious meat first!

Thinking of this, Liu Tianci's heart was agitated, his face flushed, and he said to Xia Yu: "Chairman, if it happens exactly as you say, then I will definitely stop investing and buy all gold to earn him a fortune!"

Xia Yu laughed and said confidently: "According to analysis, the possibility of a revolution in Iran has reached more than 90%. Therefore, there is a lot of money to invest in gold. Don't move New York gold, only speculate on London gold."

There are now two major gold trading markets in the world, namely London and New York, which are quite different.

The United States is one of the global gold futures trading centers. The gold futures varieties in the United States mainly refer to the gold futures varieties on the COMEX Exchange of the New York Mercantile Exchange, usually called "New York Gold".

New York gold is a futures contract, the contract has a time limit, and the leverage is limited to 35 times or less.

London Gold is completely different.

London Gold is a spot contract, 24 hours a day, seven days a week are trading hours, and the contract is indefinite, and the leverage can be used up to 100 times.

London is the oldest gold trading center and the largest gold market in the world. Its characteristic is that there is no fixed exchange, that is, there is no actual trading place.

In other words, the transaction lacks regulatory supervision and is very suitable for capital flows.

Compared with the restricted New York gold, Xia Yu, who was thinking about shooting quietly, certainly preferred the lack of supervision of London gold.

"Chairman, when do you think there will be a revolution in Iran?"

Liu Tianci asked again This question is very important. If you grasp it well, the crisis will be an opportunity. If you don't grasp it, the opportunity can become a crisis again.

Xia Yu thought for a while and said categorically: "No accident, it will explode at the end of this month, and there will be at most half a month away!"

"Half a month!"

Liu Tianci's expression was dignified, his mouth muttered, and he quickly thought about how to act in order to maximize the benefits.

When Xia Yu saw this, he smiled faintly, and said to Liu Tianci: "God gift, time is still abundant, we have to make this money, but the bank also wants to buy, which bank do you like?"

Liu Tianci was taken aback for a moment, his brows furrowed, why the topic has been around the buying bank again, didn't he just let him invest in gold first?

It seems that what the chairman meant is that you can invest in gold or buy banks?

There is only so much capital, how should this be done?

PS: How to have both fish and bear paw? Just vote ☆(￣▽￣)/$:*