v3 Chapter 864： The pigs are not fat enough

The latest website: If the price of LME copper futures is converted to the price of US advanced copper futures, it is equivalent to 0.6740 US dollars per pound, and the price of LME aluminum futures converted to Alcoa futures is equivalent to 1.3612 US dollars per pound.

But look at the opening prices of advanced copper futures and aluminum futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange this morning, which are $0.6320/lb and $1.2965/lb, respectively.

For these two types of futures, the London Metal Exchange's prices are higher than 5%.

This gap is not too small!

And judging from the overlap of customers between the London Metal Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, the prices of LME copper futures and LME aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange will soon affect the premium copper futures and Alcoa futures of the New York Mercantile Exchange. , This kind of out-of-hours factors will prompt the prices of advanced copper futures and Alcoa futures to rise.

This bullish factor is absolutely terrible news for shorts like Salomon Brothers.

"I seem to have been dragged down by Philip Brothers. Albert Raphael absolutely underestimated the power of bulls."

John Gufran thought gloomily.

"I still have to find out if Albert Raphael has any follow-up preparations. If not, I will have to plan early..."

Thinking of this, John Gufran took out an address book from the drawer, found one of the numbers on the page of Philip Brothers, and pressed the button to dial it.

Soon, the call was connected, and Albert Raphael's slightly enthusiastic voice came from the receiver.

"John, good morning..."

"Albert, good morning, I got a message. I don't know if you know that the prices of London LME copper futures and LME aluminum futures are significantly higher than the prices of American copper futures and Alcoa futures... you know?"

"Well, what are you going to do? You are the main force for shorting this time... OK, I am waiting for your reply, please be sure to..."

After speaking briefly, John Gufran narrowed his eyes, thinking back and forth about Albert Raphael's attitude and what he said.

For a long time, he opened his eyes and encouraged his subordinates to retreat. Then he went to the operation room and issued an order to temporarily reduce the short-selling effort. At the same time, he ordered the risk evaluation department to combine the current situation with the investment risk of advanced copper futures and aluminum futures. Perform a reassessment.

John Gufran has felt that he seems to have been fooled by Albert Raphael. If Philip Brothers does not exert enough strength, he will have to consider whether to continue with Philip Brothers.

...

No matter how short sellers such as Philip Brothers and Salomon Brothers struggle, Xia Yu is not nervous.

In his opinion, from the time he invested a large sum of money to purchase spot contracts, the dominant power of the situation has already fallen into his palm.

Anyway, his capital is enough to manipulate the two markets, no matter how the shorts struggle, they are doomed to fail.

It depends on whether the bears are still willing to continue to increase.

From Xia Yu's point of view, he must be eager to continue to invest money shortly. The more short-term investment, the more profits he can harvest.

Because of something temporary, Xia Yu didn't arrive at the New York branch of Galaxy Fund until 9:30 in the morning.

After the arrival, Xia Yu was in a good mood when he saw the company once again dominate the price trend of advanced copper futures and aluminum futures.

Just a closer look and found that the trading volume and frequency of advanced copper futures and aluminum futures were not as good as before, and Xia Yu realized that the shorts were hesitating.

If the commission is excluded, in principle, the futures market is a zero-sum game, and shorts and longs are equal, and neither party can sing a one-man show.

This feature of the futures market is different from the stock market, because the stock market is not a zero-sum game.

If the shorts do not follow up, the Galaxy Fund will not be able to spend its money.

The transaction volume and transaction frequency Xia Yu sees in the operation room is estimated to be equivalent to about two-fifths of the time when the struggle began.

Of course, Xia Yu's side is always ready to place buy orders to buy, and there is no sign of lack of success. The key lies in the short side, and the selling order volume is decreasing, which makes Xia Yu's side unable to open.

Seeing this situation, Xia Yu suddenly felt disappointed.

Phillip Brothers, now the number one futures market in the United States, plus Salomon Brothers, is this strength?

"Song Yang, what about the statistics of open interest?"

Taking Song Yang back to the office, Xia Yu sat down on the sofa, looked at Song Yang with his arms folded, and asked.

Song Yang said, wait a minute, and went out for a minute or so. When he came back, he already had a document in his hand and handed it to Xia Yu respectfully: "Boss, the data is here."

Xia Yu took it smoothly, looked at it seriously, and contemplated it from time to time.

Now I have held 98,200 lots of advanced copper futures, costing 1.459 billion US dollars. According to the opening price this morning, the value reached 1.552 billion US dollars, so the advanced copper The floating profit of futures is 93 million U.S. dollars.

The aluminum futures open interest is 61,450 lots, costing 1,881 million U.S. dollars. According to the opening price this morning, the value reached 1,992 million U.S. dollars, which is about to reach two. One billion US dollars, the floating profit of aluminum futures reached 110 million US dollars.

The two types of futures add up to a total floating profit of US$204 million.

Compared with the total investment of more than US$3.3 billion, this floating profit rate is definitely small.

It can also be seen from this that the short positions led by Philip Brothers are still very strong. After so long, the prices of advanced copper futures and aluminum futures have not been soared.

Unlike in the London Metal Exchange, the Bank of Barings was beaten steadily, and there was almost no way to fight it, only to watch the prices of the two futures soar.

Xia Yu is still not satisfied with these data.

On the long side, he is the main force in the main force, but on the short side, although Philip Brothers is a big short, there are also other institutions entering the market.

Xia Yu estimated that Philip Brothers estimated that it had invested only about 2 billion US dollars, or maybe even less.

Now, if Philip Brothers exits when the situation is bad, the loss will not be much, estimated to be hundreds of millions of dollars. It can hurt your muscles but not move your bones. This is not in line with Xia Yu's plan.

He planned to knock down Philip Brothers with a stick, and then take over at a low price. Philip Brothers’ loss is not large enough and it will increase the difficulty of his acquisition.

Thinking of this, Xia Yu instructed Song Yang: "Slow down the offensive in the first two days, and even pretend that there is not enough funds to lure short capital into the market."

Song Yang was taken aback, revealed a sinister smile, nodded repeatedly and said, "Boss, I understand."

The boss thinks the pig is not fat enough.

...

After leaving the Galaxy Fund, Xia Yu quietly came to the New York branch of Jiuding Securities.

As soon as he saw General Manager Toby Morton, Xia Yu went straight to the subject and asked: "Toby, how is the short going?"

Unexpectedly, Toby Morton said with some regret: "Boss, the short selling was smooth before. Many institutions are willing to bet against us, but in the past few days, we have found four institutions and are unwilling to bet against us. "

There is only one reason for holding shares in Philip Brothers but not willing to bet against, and that is because they don’t have enough confidence in Philip Brothers. They are afraid that after the gambling, the stock price of Philip Brothers will be sucked continuously and the loss will be even greater. .

If you don't bet on the right, you can sell the stocks in a timely manner to keep your losses within an acceptable range.

Xia Yu nodded slightly, and did not immediately make any comments, but continued to ask: "How much have we shorted now?"

During this period of time, the company has been revolving around this work, so Toby Morton knew these data well, he said without thinking: "At present, we are gambling with seven institutions and we have borrowed stocks in total. 21.2 million shares, accounting for 14.75% of the total equity, were sold for 616 million U.S. dollars."

"Now the share price of Philip Brothers has fallen slightly, and our floating profit is 8.26 million US dollars."

It can be seen from these data that the impact of Philip Brothers’ short-selling temporary failure has been fed back to its stock price, but because the outside world is not clear about the true loss, the stock price has only fallen slightly.

If it is revealed that Philip Brothers has lost 200 million US dollars, its stock price will definitely collapse. After all, the annual net profit of Philip Brothers last year was only 289 million US dollars.

Now the price has fallen slightly because investors rely on speculation and subjective analysis, and are not optimistic about the prospects of Philip Brothers.

After thinking for a moment, Xia Yu's face was solemn, and he stared at Toby Morton: "Toby, I have let the Galaxy Fund slow down. Maybe Philip Brothers will regain the advantage in these two days. You must seize it. Opportunity, strive to increase short-selling quickly."

"If some institutions are still unwilling to bet against each other, you have to send someone to watch them. When you launch a general offensive later, watch their equity flows so that you can buy bottoms later, understand?"

Toby Morton also talked to the boss Xia Yu, knowing that he not only wants to make a profit, but also wants to eat the Phillip Brothers company.

He still knows which one is more important.

So he nodded solemnly and replied: "Boss, I understand, I will make an action plan right away."

"Well, go ahead, work harder." Xia Yu smiled and encouraged.

...

Sure enough, in the next two days, as the buying momentum of the Galaxy Fund slowed, the bears were overjoyed.

After a series of trials, the shorts continued to increase their weight in an attempt to regain the lost ground. The longs who lost the Galaxy Fund could only barely parry.

Fortunately, the price impact of the futures markets in London and island countries has driven the prices of copper and aluminum futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange to rise.

And Toby Morton also seized the opportunity and lured three more institutions in just two days and borrowed 8.25 million shares.

After borrowing, immediately began to sell.

It's just that Toby Morton did cover it to avoid being put on the hat of malicious short selling.

However, the large-scale sale of stocks greatly increased the trading volume of Philip Brothers' stocks, which had a slight impact on the stock price.

The news inevitably passed back to Philip Brothers. Chairman Tendler Wells felt bad and felt surrounded by conspiracy.

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