Chapter 613： Times change

Boss Chen didn't care at all about Qin Yu's teasing question.

Because in the previous life, when Lehman fell, the whole world was also crying,

On the surface, it is only one company that fell, but in the long run, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has the greatest impact on the world because it further dampens people's confidence in the market and the future!

From August last year to the present, in this year, the domestic A-share market has fallen by more than 60%, the Tokyo stock market has fallen by 40%, and the Nasdaq has fallen by 45%.

The world's major financial markets jumped more and more in the past two years, and fell harder this year.

Almost all investors, whether they are retail investors, bankers, or institutions, are in constant panic. No one knows how long the financial crisis sweeping the world will last until it ends.

Just when everyone was looking forward to it, Lehman suddenly collapsed again. It is conceivable that the confidence of investors was hit hard.

Most importantly, Lehman is not the first giant to fall!

Not to mention \'New Century Finance\' and \'American Home Mortgage Investment Corporation\', the two top ten large mortgage lenders in the United States went bankrupt successively,

Not to mention that at the beginning of this month, if it hadn’t been for the U.S. government’s move to occupy half of the U.S. housing loan subprime bond market, the famous Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would not have been able to avoid the fate of direct bankruptcy.

Just the real financial giants,

You know, at this time last year, when the industry talked about US investment banks, they still referred to them as the Big Five.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns,

Which one of these hundred-year-old brands is not famous!

Now there are only four left,

Well, three years old,

Lehman is gone.

Um,

Well, two big,

Because Merrill Lynch was also accepted by the Bank of America!

So where did the remaining ones go, except Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who are temporarily stable?

Just in March of this year, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve jointly facilitated the acquisition of Bear Stearns and provided Bear Stearns with liquidity of no more than US$30 billion.

This is the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve that it has rescued non-savings banks.

It was precisely because of this incident, and the subsequent acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, that Fuld frequently asked the Federal Reserve for help.

If there is one, there are two, and if there are two, there are three. You saved Bear Stearns first, and then Merrill Lynch.

Well, although at the price of being acquired, it is also saving,

So why not save Lehman? !

We don’t need Bear Stearns’ 30 billion or Merrill Lynch’s 20 billion. We only need 10 billion or 10 billion US dollars to save this 158-year-old company that has witnessed the financial history of the United States. The old investment bank!

But unfortunately,

The end result is that the Fed not only failed to rescue Lehman, but pushed him behind the scenes!

Today, the result in the eyes of all investors around the world is,

First, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were acquired, and then Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.

So, who is the next giant to fall?

Goldman Sachs,

Or, one of the symbols of Wall Street, Morgan Stanley? !

no one knows,

No one knows the remaining two major investment banks, who will be the next giant to fall,

more alternatively,

Pour together? ? ?

This is the biggest crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman!

That is,

Crisis of confidence!

Changes overnight,

Even under such circumstances, even though Qin Yu had full confidence in Boss Chen, he couldn't help beating his heart.

Is your old man reliable or not? Don’t I work hard in the stock market for a whole year and finally earn a little money. In the end, you made a wrong judgment and we went back to the pre-liberation overnight? !

Well, it’s not enough to go back to before liberation. Anyway, there are still a lot of companies under Honggu Capital. Boss Chen is still a wealthy billionaire.

But according to Boss Chen's plan, this time, Qin Yu will use a huge sum of hundreds of billions of dollars to buy the bottom of the stock market. If his judgment is wrong, and hundreds of billions of dollars will be wiped out, it would be quite wronged, wouldn't it!

Therefore, under Qin Yu's proposal, today's emergency consultation meeting was held.

Looking at Qin Yu on the screen, Boss Chen took a leisurely sip of tea before he said with a smile, "Tell me, what kind of remarks made you lose confidence in me?"

"Boss, this time it's one-sided without any arguments!"

At the critical moment, Qin Yu lost all interest in being funny, and said seriously, "From one o'clock this morning,

Oh, it was two o'clock yesterday afternoon in your place,

That is, when Lehman announced that it was filing for bankruptcy, the whole world exploded. Almost all economists, financial consultants, financial experts, etc.,

Anyway, as long as they can talk about it and talk about it, they will express their opinions through various channels.

Now almost everyone’s point of view tends to be the same, that is, the subprime mortgage crisis that started in the United States in August last year and gradually swept the world is very likely to eventually evolve into the world’s worst crisis since 1929. financial crisis,

The crisis that started on Wall Street will be like dominoes, quickly affecting the real economy, causing global unemployment to rise, and the economies of many countries to fall into recession.

Highly indebted countries such as Greece and Iceland may even fall into the trap of "national bankruptcy"! "

Qin Yu's waving hands suddenly stopped, and then let out a long breath, "Then the world economy has fallen into a recession, and it may take ten years or even longer to get back up.

Well, I don't think it will take ten years, but, "

Her face looked a bit tangled, and she said hesitantly, "If there are no other influencing factors, I think the economic recession in about three years may be inevitable."

In fact, she wanted to say five years, but seeing Boss Chen's presence, she unconsciously reduced it by two years.

But three years is not short. In the financial market, let alone three years, three days, or even three hours, may change the outcome.

Now that she has a huge amount of money in her hand, if she can't get more confidence from Boss Chen, then she may halve the amount she originally planned to invest.

Even, trying to convince the boss,

Change course!

Chen Yang put down his teacup, looked at her with a slight smile, and asked, "Yesterday you said that you are already starting to close the position, how is the situation now?"

"what?"

Qin Yu was stunned for a moment, then quickly came back to his senses, blinked and said, "It's okay, 70% has been cleared, and the remaining 30% will be cleared in these two days."

This is her strength, no matter what she is thinking in her heart, she will firmly implement whatever the boss decides,

Otherwise, with her current state of mind, she may not have plans to keep a part of it to continue to appreciate.

You know, in the current financial market, everyone is falling, and it is really not easy to buy an empty order.

If it is not to avoid touching the management red line of the major securities markets, she may have closed all the empty orders by now,

Well, in fact, it’s not bad to fall flat later, the more late the flat is, the harder the stock index will fall, and the more profits will be. There is a difference of billions of dollars!

Hearing Qin Yu's words, Boss Chen nodded lightly and said with a smile, "Yes, yes."

In just two days, the securities markets around the world are still unable to turn the waves.

Although it is impossible to ship at the lowest point, such a large order can be sold within a few days without causing a sharp rebound in the market, which is already very good.

Can't expect too much.

Seeing that the boss has been avoiding and not answering Qin Yu's questions directly, Huang Shan, who has been listening, suddenly said,

"Actually, I didn't take much rest last night. I have been paying attention to the public opinion and reactions of all parties. Even in the middle of the night, I urgently called several experts from the Rainbow Economic Research Institute to discuss and listen to their opinions."

Chen Yang turned his head and looked at her speechlessly, "You're just looking for something to blame for nothing, I've said it many times, once Lehman collapses, the financial crisis will almost come to an end, why are you still so busy ,

Why, relying on your youth, you don't take your body seriously, right? ! "

Seeing him like this, Huang Shan couldn't help being dumbfounded,

What do you mean, I am working, okay?

And who is younger between us? !

Good guy, Huang Shan was so angry that she almost ran away.

Fortunately, Zou Rong was by my side, so I quickly changed the subject, "Sister Shan, did your discussion come to fruition?"

Huang Shan took a deep breath, turned to look at her, and nodded vigorously, "Yes,"

After a pause, he explained, "I didn't want to mention it at first, because this conclusion is contrary to the boss's inference, and I just wanted to let the companies deal with it carefully, but now Xiao Yu is also worried, so I will mention it."

Hearing this, Qin Yu on the screen was shocked, "What's the result on your side? Are you not optimistic about it?"

Huang Shan shook her head slightly, frowned and said, "You can't simply say that you don't like it. Judging from the reality, the problem is more serious than imagined.

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is not only a major event in the United States, but also has a deeper international impact.

That is, the fear of inflation in various countries will probably be replaced by the fear of deflation.

The collapse of Lehman, the stock market plummet, debt default and asset price decline will create a vicious circle of chain pressure on the economies of all countries.

As a result, banks have difficulties in operating, and it is difficult for enterprises to obtain loans. In the end, they have to adopt more extreme measures such as layoffs and production reductions to overcome difficulties, and finally lead to the economy entering the era of global deflation.

All countries, especially the central banks of emerging countries, will face very severe challenges, and even this challenge is more serious than that of the United States, which caused the crisis.

On the one hand, the long-term overheating of the domestic economy makes them dare not take inflation lightly.

On the other hand, the global deflation crisis caused by the Lehman Brothers incident will make them face a dilemma in choosing their own interest rate policy.

In this case, if not controlled,

Having said that, Huang Shan turned her head and looked at Boss Chen with an unprecedented seriousness on her face.

"Before you speculated that Lehman Brothers would go bankrupt and end this financial crisis, Xiao Yu and I had no doubts out of our trust in you.

But this time the market's reaction was far beyond our expectations. As Xiaoyu said just now, if it is not controlled, it is very likely to evolve into the most serious global financial crisis since 1929! "

After she finished speaking, Boss Chen nodded slightly,

First he looked at Qin Yu, then at Huang Shan, both of them looked ready to fight.

Chen Yang couldn't help laughing, "When you stated the seriousness of the problem, you all said a similar sentence,

\'If nothing else,\'

\'If left unchecked,\'

Right? ! "

Qin Yu and Huang Shan nodded together,

Chen Yang smiled and said, "Okay, then let me tell you how likely this if is to become a reality."

Before he could start speaking, he handed the teacup to Zou Rong, "Pour me a glass of water."

Today is a closed-door meeting, and no one is allowed to enter at will. Boss Chen ran out of water in his teacup and had to ask his wife to pour it. What a pity.

Zou Rong was quite happy, grabbed the teacup and ran to pour water,

When she ran back, Boss Chen took a sip, let out a breath of steam, and said slowly,

"If you want to change the current situation, you need to start from both internal and external aspects. Since you mentioned the severe international situation, I will start with the international environment.

Just now you said that those experts estimated that this subprime mortgage crisis may evolve into the most serious financial crisis since 1929.

So, do you know what the world situation was like before and after the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2009? "

Huang Shan and Qin Yu nodded together,

Both of them are economics majors, so of course they have a deep understanding of the economic crisis of 1929,

What's more, there are few people who don't know about this big event that appears in both junior high school history books and Zhengzhi textbooks.

If you still don’t know, the milk dumping incident where the American capitalists would rather dump the milk than sell it at a lower price stems from this economic crisis!

Chen Yang looked at the two and smiled, and said, "The international situation back then was war, great powers, colonies, confrontation, poverty, division, etc. There could be countless adjectives, but none of them was good.

In that case, once the economic crisis breaks out, no country can resist the spread of the economic crisis.

But now, what is the situation? "

Hearing this, both Qin Yu and Huang Shan understood,

Chen Yang said with a smile, "Times have changed. In today's world, peace and cooperation are the mainstream.

Whether it is an established power or an emerging country, they are all very aware of the extent of the harm caused by the financial crisis.

Facing the financial crisis before, governments of various countries did not act in isolation, and the desire of the world to join forces to fight the crisis was unprecedentedly consistent.

Could it be that now that Lehman has collapsed and the situation is even more serious, they are fighting on their own?

Therefore, even if it is for their own sake, most countries will choose to join handsto solve this financial crisis together! "

After the boss finished speaking, Huang Shan immediately sighed and said, "If the governments of all countries work together, it can indeed alleviate or even resolve this financial crisis!"

When she said this, she couldn't help secretly blaming herself for being ignorant. She only focused on analyzing from the economic point of view, but forgot the higher level of governance.

University political economics is for nothing!

In fact, she can't be blamed for this. She is stronger than Soros, who caused the Asian financial crisis. Isn't it because of his lack of sensitivity to political governance that he defeated Russia?

Seeing that both of them looked a little depressed, Chen Yang couldn't help laughing secretly,

I think back when I was in college, many students talked about what Western economics is the real economics, while political economics is not.

After more experience, you will understand that the practicability of political economics is far stronger than that of Western economics with liberalism at its core.

Because the economy is built in a social environment, it also needs to accept the leadership of Zhengzhi, so how can it get rid of the influence of Zhengzhi!