v2 Chapter 1693： stock market property market 14

The front of the conversation has changed so quickly, it seems that the other party wants to lead the topic to his strong side. As a well-known Japanese economist, he is also the president of the Bank of Japan; it is a bit ironic to ask a foreign engineer man about his country's economic situation. If it is someone else, it is really easy to turn around; after all, the question asked is inherently flawed.

But no one dared to regard Bao Zixuan as a pure science and engineering man, even if the other party had made a lot of achievements in the field of science and technology. A young man who has started his own business for ten years, his wealth can be comparable to that of European and American giants for hundreds of years; just ask how many people can do it. Therefore, Bao Zixuan is defined as an economist all over the world.

Although many economists don't want to think so, the facts speak louder than words; there is nothing they can do about the general trend.

Bao Zixuan said with a smile, "As the President of the Bank of Japan, you are the most famous economist in Japan. You asked me about Japan's economy. It was really hard to answer for a while."

"Mr. Mie is not a person who is aimless. There must be a reason to ask this question. If there is something wrong, just take it as a big sword in front of Guan Gong's door, which is beyond your own power!"

The richest man Bao does not have to answer, the other party obviously wants to embarrass him. After all, Mie No Yasushi is one of the most thorough people in the world to study the Japanese economy. But backing down is not his style. And I want to convince the other party; at the same time, the Blackstone Fund can retreat without hindrance. The old boy in front of him must be suppressed from all aspects.

If you can't do that, you'll make money though. But if you want to transfer all the money, it will take a very long time. The magistrate is not as good as the current one. As the president of the central bank of a country, the other party has a lot of power.

Mie Yeyasu said with a smile: "Bao Sang is really too modest, although you did not study some economics majors. But the control of the world economy is definitely at the level of a top expert. As for the view on the Japanese economy, from the earnings Huge profits can show the clue. No matter how good it is, the key is to see who can make the money.”

"The two companies, Blackstone Fund and Heiyun Group, have more profits in Japan than any other company. There is a Chinese proverb, the bystanders are clear, and the authorities are obsessed. You are not Japanese, and you may be more objective in many places."

Although he said so, his expression betrayed it. As the president of the Bank of Japan, I don't say that Mount Tai is in front of me, but I don't change my face, but at least I won't show it. As for why this is the case, it is obviously for Bao Zixuan to see.

The meaning is obvious, he is an authority in the Japanese economic field. Talking to the richest man in the world before was really not an advantage at all. I just found some confidence in the language, and I was beaten by others' understanding of my own books. Now that he has finally come to the field he is most familiar with, he is bound to regain his lost face.

Bao Zixuan said with a smile: "Since the words have already been said for this sake, let's get an axe after work."

“From the end of 1979 to the end of 1984, the exchange rate of the dollar rose by 60%; the dollar against the currencies of the major industrial countries exceeded the level reached before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The dollar was too strong, and U.S. exports, especially manufacturing exports, suffered hit hard."

"Whether a country's local currency exchange rate appreciates or depreciates, it will have both good and bad effects. The depreciation of the local currency is good for exports, but not good for imports; the appreciation of the local currency is bad for exports, but good for imports."

"At the same time, the appreciation of the local currency helps domestic companies to expand overseas. For Japan and Germany after the Plaza Accord, the most obvious ones are Japanese and German companies and individuals; the money in hand can be exchanged for more US dollars, Dollar assets have become super cheap in their view. So they buy and buy; this is not consumption, but the acquisition of assets. For Japan, whose economy has grown rapidly for 30 years and is the second largest economy in the world; At this time, Japanese capital is ambitiously going to the world, and the appreciation of the yen is more beneficial to these capitals than the disadvantages. Japan has indeed taken advantage of the appreciation of the yen to buy a lot of high-quality assets in the United States.”

"From another perspective, the country that signed the Plaza Accord with the United States was not only Japan, but also Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. People only pay attention to the sharp appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar after the Plaza Accord, but do not know that Germany The mark and the currencies of the other three countries also appreciated significantly. For comparison, in 1985, 1 US dollar = 240 yen, three years later in 1988, the yen appreciated to 1 US dollar = 120 yen, and the yen doubled in value within three years. "

"At the same time, the increase in the Deutsche mark is even more exaggerated than that of the yen. From 1 US dollar = 3.5 Deutsche marks in 1985 to 1 US dollar = 1.6 Deutsche marks in 1988, the appreciation is nearly 1.4 times."

"The Bank of Japan significantly reduced the benchmark interest rate from 5% to 2.5% within a year and a half after the Plaza Accord, and condoned the rampant currency speculation and lacked due supervision. At present, major Japanese banks are also appreciating their value. The land is used as a guarantee to lend a lot to debtors. The increase in land prices also increases the book property of the landowner, which stimulates the desire for consumption, which leads to an increase in consumer demand in Japan.”

"At present, the total market value of the Japanese stock market has reached 130% of that of the U.S. stock market. 14 of the top 20 listed companies with the largest market value in the world are Japanese companies. On the surface, the Japanese economy is very beautiful, but you must know the hidden danger better than me. After all, Japan Compared with the United States, there is still a certain gap in GDP; and the market itself is not as large as that of American companies.”

"As for revenue, there is not much advantage. So the stock price is not very reasonable, and the market should return to rationality."

"I know you can't make up your mind yet. After all, the chaebol family and Wall Street capital have not completely withdrawn."

"Japan's urbanization rate is close to 80%, and it can be expected that the new population in cities will be very limited in the future; more importantly, Japan's aging population is rapidly increasing. The future housing demand of the entire country is definitely less and less, so at such a high level, the housing price is guaranteed. It doesn't make any sense at all!"

Hearing Bao Zixuan's analysis, Mie Ye Kang couldn't calm down for a long time. After all, what the other party said was very close to his true inner thoughts. If you don't make up your mind, then the whole of Japan will lose more.

In fact, the richest man Bao also has his own selfishness. Once he locks up Wall Street capital, or he suffers heavy losses in Japan. Then the next two German reunification, the disintegration of the Soviet Union; the funds they can mobilize will naturally decrease accordingly.

At that time, the Blackstone Fund and the Black Cloud Group will occupy an absolute dominant position. Only God knows how much profit they can make.

At present, the president of the Bank of Japan still has many scruples. I don't want to offend too many people and ruin my career. It's easy to say that the bubble is burst; but there are a few people who really dare to do it and can do it.

Mie Yeyasu said with a smile: "Isn't Bao Sang worried that the Bank of Japan will make some moves, which will cause the interests of the Blackstone Fund to suffer losses!"

If people do not kill the heavens and the earth for their own sake, Bao Zixuan is definitely not a living Bodhisattva. First of all, it must be for the sake of self-interest. As for the life and death of other people, it has little to do with him. It will never be so kind, and there must be some unknown secrets.

Bao Zixuan said with a smile: "Blackstone Fund has already started to sell stocks and real estate, and it has already realized the return of its capital as early as half a year ago. How much it sells now is pure profit."

"In addition to the properties and stocks currently held, they are all high-quality assets. Maybe there may be a certain decline in the middle, but after ten or twenty years, it will naturally be able to earn back."

"So there's really nothing to worry about, and I think you should understand what that means."

It's a bit crazy to say, but it's true. After all, Bao Zixuan has already made too much profit through the Japanese market, so he really doesn't care how much is left.

On second thought, something is wrong. Even if you have money, you don't want to see profits slip away from your eyes. Talking like this is just to talk in a spacious place, and I don't want to be so passive.

There is still too much real estate and stocks in the Blackstone Fund that have not been sold, which is likely to be an ambush.

Mie Yekang said with a smile: "Bao Sang is really open-minded, it seems that my worries are a little unnecessary."

Obviously there is something in the words, it can be said that both of them began to become mysterious.

Bao Zixuan said with a smile: "Maybe Mr. Sanzhong may not believe it, but this is the truth. The real estate and stocks currently held by the Blackstone Fund are really not much left."

"Just yesterday, there was a targeted sell-off of nearly $20 billion in Japanese company stocks."

After he finished speaking, he took out the signed equity transfer agreement and showed it to Mie Yeyasu. Just to let the old man know that the so-called blockade may be of no use at all; on the contrary, it is easy to backfire!