CH 483

POSTED ON JANUARY 5, 2023 BY JACK RUSSELL

Annan turned his attention back to Delicious Wind Goose’s live broadcast.

Obviously, the identities of the three players were utterly exposed after the first night.

Old Goose had reasoned that the key to this game was “inciting the others”.

In other words, dragging people into the mess.

Thus, their victory condition was no longer hiding their identity but using various means and words to persuade others to start committing murders too.

However, the core challenge of this game did not lie in speaking skills.

Instead, it was “time”.

There were less than five minutes of thinking time in each stage. The average ritual participant would not be able to make instant decisions every round. There must be some kind of “habit”.

In other words, the participants would adopt the strategy of “sticking with the decision until a certain critical point was reached”.

At the same time, due to the lack of time for communication, it was almost impossible to “use logical and sound reasoning to convince others” and gain the right to speak.

Under such conditions, people would tend to make decisions instinctively.

Conversely, the players had to give the ritual participants a sense of urgency and flip the decisive [switch].

Annan narrowed his eyes slightly.

Whether discussing the possibility of the other’s behavior at the logical level or figuring out the rationality of the other’s behavior, there would be mistakes and omissions. If the players wanted to grasp the behavior pattern of the others in advance, they had first to determine their strategy.

If the players did not know what the other ritual participants wanted, they could not figure out what the others wanted to do.

“I wonder when Delicious Wind Goose will notice this.”

The tremendous difference between this game and the party game was that the ritual signified death, even though it was a nightmare.

But a nightmare was an abstraction of historical records—it must be different from reality. However, its original story must have happened in reality at least once.

“—Once the success or failure of the game determines their own life and death, everyone will adopt a relatively safe and conservative strategy when they are calm.

“—unless they lose their cool.”

Longjing Tea wrote quickly in the bullet text.

Although the success or failure of this game had nothing to do with whether the players’ identities were exposed, their private conversations on the first night would have significantly diminished the credibility of their words.

Without knowing who to be voted out, the participants would inevitably vote the three players out first.

It was just because the players happened to have three people.

This game lasted a total of three days and four nights. After excluding the daytime of the first day when nothing could be done, it was exactly three rounds. This meant that participants could only cast votes to eliminate three people.

This was the critical point for strategic dominance [1].

Having four people contact each other on the first day could tip the balance. The rest of the participants could only vote three people out. In any case, there was a possibility that one person would kill two people without being voted out.

“—After all, only three of you entered the game, and you didn’t talk to the other NPCs on the first day. Thus, you are isolated on the second day. The correct approach is to talk to the NPCs in groups on the first day. The discussion is unimportant, and the point is to form small groups to divide them and make them suspicious of each other.”

Longjing Tea, who had mastered the rules, quickly taught Delicious Wind Goose.

It was a pity that only Old Goose turned on the live-streaming function. Otherwise, Longjing Tea felt he could operate the three players in the nightmare and complete the game.

However, considering that only Delicious Wind Goose could see his words, it might be difficult for the players to communicate. Even though Longjing Tea had already guessed all the rules and tactics, he still could not secure the victory.

However, Delicious Wind Goose’s gaze soon brimmed with determination.

He had figured it out.

He understood what he did wrong and would try to make amends accordingly.

Soon, it was Delicious Wind Goose’s turn to speak.

Dove’s previous statements had only temporarily misled the participants. But if Old Goose could not give any comeback speeches, the outcome would be having the three of them voted out.

He fell silent for a moment and slowly replied,

“—I’m not a villager.

“I claim myself as a villager in the first round to protect the villagers from being killed.

“And my real identity is an Idol Wizard.”

After Delicious Wind Goose said this, he said calmly, “You may vote me out now, but that is meaningless. The people after me don’t need to speak anymore because the murderer has won. If you don’t believe it, listen to my analysis—”

He had foreseen the surprised and uncertain expressions of the others.

“If I don’t reveal myself this round, then I will definitely use my skill tonight, and I will be killed immediately since I can’t defend myself; if I don’t reveal myself, then I will be voted out tomorrow.

“So I will die if I don’t reveal myself, that’s why I have exposed my identity.

“The only condition for me to survive is that you choose not to vote me out for the time being, and I will begin the murder and switch my side immediately after nightfall. In this way, even if I temporarily ‘die’, I don’t have to die as long as the side I belong to wins.

“Why do I say the killers have won?

“The answer is straightforward. It will succeed as long as the person who kills me tonight is not the same as the person who killed yesterday. On the third day, two people will meet the victory condition of ‘killing two people’. The rest can only choose to vote for the one I have highlighted.

“Then, even if the number of murderers does not increase, there will be a winner alive to proceed to the fourth day. Considering this matter, the winning chance of the evil side is already greater than 50%. Then, if you want to switch sides in time, you have to get a kill count on the second day.

“In this way, the killer faction will fulfill the winning condition even if we can maintain a defensive state and attain the final victory on the craziest night of the third day. This will happen as long as no two people kill one person at the same time and the ‘winner’ successfully hides his status—half of the people at that time would have blood on their hands. The skills of the Edict Wizard and the Prophet Wizard are no longer valid because what they want to do is no longer to protect themselves but to hide the ‘winner’.”

Delicious Wind Goose declared his demon-like inferences in a calm voice and methodically.

There was no doubt that Old Goose was bullshitting.

Delicious Wind Goose did not know whether those eliminated would die immediately or at the end. That was because “at least one person survives” was their dungeon instance’s winning condition as a player. However, the condition for the other ritual participants was not necessarily this.

He was just taking a gamble.

If Old Goose did not make a move, he would die.

However, the outcome might change if he stirred up more chaos.

“What if the winner is killed by mistake on the third night? Everyone has to start killing on the third night. If the person who gets the kill on the second day chooses to defend, there is also the possibility of being attacked and killed by multiple people at the same time on the third day.

“Thus, taking either the defense or the offense have the same winning chances on Day 3.”

Of course, this was all nonsense.

There was no doubt that if Delicious Wind Goose was really the Prophet Wizard, then killing on the second day and defending himself on the third day was the strategy with the highest probability of winning.

But after hearing this, who would care about details like this?