Chapter 1901

Since mid March, Andy began to buy the U.S. from the bottom, bottoming and rebounding. Although there are many Bo discounts in the process, it is also a big market out of a strong rebound of Bo, but after entering June, the U.S. stock market began to decline again.

Some analysts began to expect a long-term decline in the stock market, especially as the performance disclosure period moved forward, the results released by enterprises disappointed investors.

Us and European stocks closed lower on Friday as consumer confidence fell short of expectations. So far, the US and European stock markets have fallen for four weeks in a row.

Earnings warnings from listed companies and news of declining consumer confidence in the US highlighted concerns about the economic recovery and the potential weakness of corporate second quarter results. In addition, oil prices continued to decline, and US crude oil futures fell below $60, triggering investors to sell some energy stocks.

"While there is some positive news, the main concern is that we are still in recession." Alverterie calmly explained to Andy the problems facing the American financial market at present.

"According to some deflationary data from the think tank, although commodity prices have fallen, demand has not picked up, inventories have gradually declined and unemployment has continued to rise.

The S & P 500 index rose about 40% from its 12-year low in mid March, but the index fell 7% from its high on June 12. It is expected that the stock market will continue to fall for some time in the future, especially as the performance disclosure period moves forward, the results announced by enterprises disappointed investors.

Last Friday's trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange also shows some problems. It's very light, just over 900 million shares, far lower than the daily average volume of 1.5 billion shares last year. The number of rising and falling stocks on the New York Stock Exchange is 1437 to 1525. "

Listening to alvert's introduction of all kinds of data and analysis, Andy browsed the financial data in his hand and nodded his head with satisfaction. Compared with the money he made by copying the bottom, he didn't care about the drop. Besides, the capital invested in stock index futures has been withdrawn for a long time. Now most of the blue chips he holds are blue chips in a short time He is not allowed to be prepared, so he does not pay attention to the short-term rise and fall.

"Since the shock has come down, let's change everything." Andy closes the documents in his hand and puts them on his desk. He needs to go back and check the financial data carefully. He is not careless about his assets. Even if he believes that his think tank won't eat inside and out of the hole, he should know it well.

"By the way, just take the opportunity of adjustment and continue to buy back Starbucks' shares. My ultimate idea is to complete the holding of more than 50% of Starbucks' shares, fully control it, and I attach great importance to the future of Starbucks."

"The buyback of Starbucks stock has not been stopped. After all, they can use the short-term operation to wash the fund, can control the price of the sucker very well, avoid too much Bo movement of the stock price, and cause some unnecessary troubles. " Alvert reports.

Andy nods, ponders, looks at al seriously and asks, "Al, what do you think of the retail industry? It's a supermarket, a convenience store. "

When his boss asked about the industry, alvette frowned and began to think quickly. Andy didn't disturb him, but waited for his answer.

"The competition in the retail industry is very fierce, especially the entry threshold is not high. Therefore, there are not many retail enterprises with real high profits. In particular, the rise of e-commerce has had a huge impact on the traditional retail industry. Sears, the third largest retailer in the United States, J.C. Penney, and Macy's department store have all been cut back in the financial crisis. Correspondingly, the rapid development of e-commerce giant Amazon.

Under the background of e-commerce impact and traditional retail closing one after another, I don't think that entering the retail industry can bring much benefits to the boss, but it will release capital, time and energy due to more and more fierce market competition, which is a bit more than worth the loss. After all, retail industry is not an industry that can see profits in a short time. "

After hearing al's analysis and objection, Andy's expression on his face did not change. It seemed that he had been prepared for it for a long time and guessed al's attitude towards it.

In fact, when he stayed in the retail industry, he had this idea. The prosperity of 7-11 convenience store made him blush a little. Although the memory of his previous life stayed in the most prosperous period of e-commerce, he also had a little different idea with his increasing vision and experience.

At present, it is the booming stage of Internet e-commerce, and then it will usher in the era of mobile Internet. The online + offline mode is bound to be the general trend in the future, and offline sales will inevitably return.

In fact, this is the necessity of commercial development. When the e-commerce industry has separated from the barbaric era and started to develop steadily, and the competition among e-commerce enterprises tends to be normalized, the e-commerce market will inevitably show a partially saturated state. The most direct impact of e-commerce market satiety is the decline of market profitability, coupled with the growth of consumer willingness and offline profitability, offline sales will also become a general trend.In fact, the retail industry has not changed in essence. The new and old retail is actually the carrier and object of retail.

To put it bluntly, online and offline e-commerce mode mainly depends on price and flow dividend. With the huge dividend of Internet population, the traffic cost has been greatly reduced, and the online platform has eaten users at the expense of gross profit. But with the migration of time, when one day, businesses and consumers tend to be saturated, the flow of dividends no longer exist. While the cost and gross profit of online e-commerce are almost the same as that of offline stores. When the price of online and offline is similar, when the advantage of e-commerce is no longer available, human beings will again dominate the personally completed transaction experience.

Don't boast anything from accurate recommendation to user analysis. Use what Internet thinking to operate e-commerce, armed with data. To be clear, when the price is the same, nothing can be used, and no data can be used. When the price is the same, offline experience consumption is the most fundamental and detailed consumption mode, rather than tedious waiting, unknown product quality, and troublesome Return, people will be more willing to see and touch the goods, and more happy!

Of course, the premise is that there is not much difference in price.

The core of retail industry is nothing more than cost and efficiency. When the online and offline costs come to the same run line, when the offline means to improve efficiency, the online life will be sad.

Well, it's still a long way to go. It's at least 10 to 15 years before offline sales return. After all, there's still a mobile Internet era just starting, and the cold winter of offline sales is the current reality. From the macro perspective, the current retail industry is really in a recession, and the global physical stores are experiencing a wave of Bo and Bo store closures.

"Three percent of Costco and one percent of Walmart accounted for the stock market investment ratio that the think tank put forward at the beginning. I understand that Walmart, after all, is the largest retailer in the United States. This Costco was introduced at that time that it relies on membership fees to make money. Is that right? " Andy looks at alvette and asks.

"Yes, Costco is the largest chain member warehouse type mass merchandiser in the world. This year, it has also become the third largest retailer in the United States. Its business features are providing high-quality goods at low prices, and fewer items compared with its peers, and charging members annual fees.

Costco initially only provides services to small enterprises, but later found that if it selectively provides services to some non enterprise individual members, it will bring greater benefits to the company.

At present, Costco operates more than 452 stores all over the world, which are distributed in seven countries. There is no doubt that Costco has become the leader of warehousing and wholesale stores.

What our think tank values is that membership is the basis of all business logic of Costco. Whether it is to support the operation with membership fee or to reduce the cost with large purchase volume, a considerable membership scale is required, which is a long process, to accumulate members and to cultivate brands. A large number of members with high loyalty are the most solid barriers for Costco.

So we decided to suggest to the boss that we buy its shares. Its growth space is very large... "

" buy it! " Andy's eyes are bright, and his eyes become extremely sharp.